Everton v Chelsea: Goals could be in short supply

Everton boss Marco Silva will be wary of Chelsea's goal threat
Everton boss Marco Silva
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The goal count could be low when Everton host Chelsea on Sunday afternoon, says Dave Tindall...

"When Chelsea have played after a Europa League away game, their record drops to just one win in four. And in three of those four games which include the 0-0 v Everton, they've failed to score."

2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 9/10 (Sportsbook)

Everton v Chelsea
Sunday, 16:30

Toffees in bottom half

Everton fans expected more than this under Marco Silva.

Rather than winning the 'best of the rest' category and pushing for seventh, the Toffees find themselves in the bottom half of the table and they entered the weekend just nine points clear of the relegation places.

The slide has been due to poor home form. Everton finished eighth last season with just three away wins and they've already beaten that tally this term.

But just a single maximum haul in their last nine games at Goodison has caused a real loss of momentum.

Chelsea battling for top four

There's a similar sense of underachievement in the air at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea starting Match Week 31 in sixth place although they do have a game in hand on their other rivals for a Champions League spot.

Maurizio Sarri has had all sorts of grief over the last few months following a very positive start to the season but at least he his stock is up again coming into this one after his side cruised to a 5-0 win away to Dynamo Kiev in the Europa League on Thursday night.

Away from home domestically, they've been rather boom or bust with eight wins, five losses and just a single draw.

It adds to a sense that you don't quite know what you're going to get with them.

Even money for visitors

Chelsea are clearly fancied to win the battle of the Blues, the market showing them at [2] to return south with all three points.

Everton are [4.2] to give the frustrated locals a much-needed Goodison win while The Draw is [3.75].

The pair played out a 0-0 stalemate in London earlier this season, as they did in this fixture last season.

Prior to that, Chelsea had scored 12 goals in their last three visits to Goodison, recording 3-0 and 6-3 wins along with an 3-3 draw.

Overall, it's a hard call with neither inspiring much trust so I'll look for my best bets elsewhere.

Chelsea vulnerable after Europe

While four wins and three draws in their eight matches played immediately after Europa League games suggests Chelsea can handle the potentially unsettling rhythms of Thursday-Sunday, it's worth breaking that record down further.

When Chelsea have played after a Europa League away game, their record drops to just one win in four. And in three of those four games which include that 0-0 v Everton, they've failed to score.

Having applied that extra filter, I'm leaning towards a low goal count.

Unders looks the play

As well as Chelsea showing a lack of spark after trips to Europe - and Kiev was a longer journey than usual - I can see other reasons why Under 2.5 goals is the play at 9/10.

While banging in five goals suggests Sarri's men have found a groove again, the knock-on effect of watching Chelsea go nap could be greater caution from Everton.

Silva was clearly wary of Liverpool in the derby and organised his team well enough to get a 0-0 draw.

And he also found a way of shutting Chelsea down when the two sides fired blanks at Stamford Bridge in November.

Four of Everton's last five home games have gone Under 2.5 so that adds further confidence.

Cards count could be high

Kevin Friend flashed seven yellows in the first meeting between this pair and it can often get a little feisty.

It means the the bookings count in the last five meetings reads 7, 3, 5, 4, 7 while an FA Cup meeting three seasons ago saw both sides reduced to 10 men.

Anthony Taylor looks a good ref to facilitate a high card count as he's brandished four reds in his last seven games and dished out 15 yellows in his last three.

Head to the Sportsbook and back Over 30 Bookings Points at 10/11.

Same Game Multi

I'm not a fan of goals here but at least Eden Hazard will have fresh legs after not taking part in Kiev.

He's not scored an away goal since Boxing Day but those who think the Belgian is due one on the road an spark an away win can get just under 5/2 for Hazard to score in a Chelsea win on the Same Game Multi.

Dave Tindall's P/L, 2018/19

Staked: 105pts
Returned: 86.67pts
P/L: -18.33pts

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