Crystal Palace v West Ham: Bulldozer Benteke to shine again

Kevin Hatchard
14 October 2016

Christian Benteke has been in great form for club and country

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There's a fascinating London derby in prospect on Saturday evening, as resurgent Crystal Palace face struggling West Ham. Kevin Hatchard expects a thrilling encounter...

"West Ham's last nine away games in the Premier League have featured at least three goals, and they have the worst defensive record in the division."

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.875/6

Crystal Palace v West Ham
Saturday October 15, 17:30
Live on BT Sport

Crystal Palace

After a dreadful start to the season, Crystal Palace have steadied what was starting to look like a very rickety ship. They lost their first two games of the campaign to West Brom and Tottenham, and at that point they had won just two Premier League games out of 25 stretching back into last season.

However, aided by some smart signings like Andros Townsend and Christian Benteke, Alan Pardew's men have come roaring back. The Eagles have put together a five-match unbeaten run, with three wins and two draws. They have shown some guts, coming back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Sunderland, and wiping out deficits to force 1-1 draws with Bournemouth and Everton. Indeed, had they not had a perfectly good goal chalked off at Goodison Park, they might have taken maximum points.

Benteke, who scored the fastest goal in World Cup qualifying history in midweek (8.1 seconds for Belgium v Gibraltar), is showing that his miserable spell at Liverpool was probably more of a style clash than a lack of effectiveness. He has netted three goals in five league appearances this term, and all three have been strikes that either put Palace in front or level.

Centre-back Scott Dann is battling to recover from a hamstring injury, while striker Loic Remy is still a few weeks from fitness. Centre-back James Tomkins is in line to face his boyhood club, having swapped the Hammers for the Eagles in the summer.

West Ham

The fluctuation of fortunes in football is one of the things that makes it so fascinating. Just as Palace are recovering after an awful run that tested the patience of their fans to the limit, West Ham have plunged into crisis after last season's hope-inducing displays.

Opta tell us that West Ham have made their worst start to a top-flight since 1988. An injury crisis has taken hold, and the European dream died before it had barely taken shape. Coach Slaven Bilic has had to rely on the mountain of goodwill he built up as a Hammers player, and as the man who led the team to seventh last term. Exasperated by some of his team's displays this term, Bilic has had the air of a City banker who just lots millions in an erroneous trade.

West Ham have lost five of their seven league games this term, and they have the worst defensive record in the division, having shipped 17 goals already. On the road, the Hammers have lost their last four league games stretching back into last season.

There are some small crumbs of comfort. After a post-Euro 2016 hangover, magician Dimitri Payet is back in the building, and his solo goal in the recent 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough was jaw-dropping. Influential left-back Aaron Cresswell is finally back in training, although the joy of that has been dimmed by the fact that Sam Byram and Gokhan Tore have been added to the sick list.

Match Odds

Palace's good run has seen them priced at 2.1211/10 to beat the struggling Hammers, but that feels a touch short to me. Palace have only won three of their last 13 home games in the league, and Opta tell us they've lost their last two home matches against West Ham. Intriguingly, Palace have an awful recent record in London derbies, having taken just two points from their last seven encounters with capital clubs.

I can't get excited about backing the hosts at that price, but West Ham's awful form makes any wager in their favour a risky one.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This market seems more of a solid proposition, as I fancy at least three goals to be scored at Selhurst Park. Three of Palace's last five league games have featured three goals or more, and they have scored 11 goals in those five matches.

Five of West Ham's seven league games have seen an overs bet pay out, as have their last nine PL away trips. Bilic's men haven't kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 away games in the top flight.

Ref Watch

Martin Atkinson may have his work cut out for him on Saturday, as the last three meetings between Palace and West Ham have featured a sending-off. Atkinson has shown 25 yellow cards this term in eight games, and a Sending Off is priced at 4.84/1.

To Score

Benteke's excellent form makes him an attractive bet at 2.47/5, while West Ham's Dimitri Payet is worth a look at 3.711/4. The Frenchman scored in both games against Palace last season, and netted that wonder goal against Boro before the international break.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.875/6
Back Christian Benteke to score at 2.47/5

Kevin Hatchard 2016-17 Premier League P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 9

Points Returned: 5.69

P/L: -3.31 points

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