Crystal Palace v Tottenham: Defences on top in London derby

Joe Dyer
19 January 2016

Jan Vertonghen will return to the Spurs backline alongside compatriot Toby Alderweireld

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Spurs take their unlikely title challenge to Selhurst Park for a game against Alan Pardew's stuttering Crystal Palace with all the trends pointing towards a low-scoring affair. Joe Dyer provides our preview...

"Opta tell us that the last nine Premier League meetings between Spurs and Crystal Palace have seen 17 goals scored, all of them in the second half, and I'm pretty confident this'll be another low-scoring game. There are plenty of options on Betfair to profit from that outcome if you are similarly convinced."

Back Draw/Spurs @ 6.05/1

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday January 23, 15:00

Crystal Palace

A five game winless streak has taken the wind out of Palace's sails just when they were sailing close to the uncharted waters of the top four. Alan Pardew's men have one clear problem - scoring goals. It's now been five Premier League games without one, although they did manage a 2-1 FA Cup win at Southampton during that run, and the strain seems to have shown on the defence which has conceded eight in the last three top-flight games, all of which were defeats. Rumours abound about potential striker targets in the transfer market with Emmanuel Adebayor and Bafetimbi Gomis two of the names mentioned. It's doubtful anyone will be in place in time for this game, however.

Key man Yannick Bolasie is the one definite absentee with Bakary Sako and Dwight Gayle slight doubts.

Tottenham Hotspur

After three games in the space of 11 days Spurs finally got one over Leicester in midweek with a 2-0 win at the King Power Stadium to advance to the fourth round of the FA Cup. That victory comes after a 4-1 tonking of Sunderland to snap a two-game winless streak in the league, a poor run which had knocked an admittedly unlikely title challenge. Mauricio Pochettino rested a few key men for the Leicester game including first choice centrehalves Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld, and key striker Harry Kane.

Bar unlikely starters Ryan Mason, Alex Pritchard and Clinton N'Jie, all of Pochettino's first team are available for selection.

Match Odds

Spurs are fancied to win this and their position as favourites is understandable but I'm not sure I can recommend them at 2.26/5 for the 90 minute win. Three points for Palace can be backed at 3.7511/4 while the draw is 3.55/2.

Tottenham's record on the road is good, but not great. What they are is very hard to beat - four games have been won, five drawn, with just the solitary defeat.

Palace are not great in attack and while the defence has lost its good form in recent games it has been a strong unit. Pardew's team are still competitive - I think this will be close and potentially decided by a lone goal.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Unders is a warm order but even at 1.84/5 it is a tempting bet. Spurs have conceded just nine on the road - a joint league best - while Palace are miserly at Selhurst Park, giving up just 12 goals 11 games. Both defensive units are at full strength and the game is likely to see Spurs dominate possession but struggle to break the home side down with Palace attacking on the break.

If betting at odds-on isn't your thing, Under 1.5 is an option at around 3.412/5, it would have copped in the first game between these two this season - a 1-0 win for Spurs thanks to a solitary Son goal in the second half.

Opta tell us that the last nine Premier League meetings between Spurs and Crystal Palace have seen 17 goals scored, all of them in the second half, and I'm pretty confident this'll be another low-scoring game. There are plenty of options on Betfair to profit from that outcome if you are similarly convinced.

The obvious bet is backing the second half to have more goals than the first. The Sportsbook pays at 23/20 on that bet. More ambitious is a punt on Draw/Spurs in the halftime/fulltime market at 6.05/1.

Backing No in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.9110/11 is another option, as is supporting either team to record a clean sheet. Spurs, who have shut Palace out in four of the last five meetings between the two, are the shorter price at around 2.915/8 while Palace are 4.216/5 to stop Spurs from scoring.

Recommended Bets
Back Second Half to feature more goals @ 23/20
Back Draw/Spurs @ 6.05/1

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