Crystal Palace v Manchester United
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Palace without Zaha...and an entire defence
Injuries have conspired against Roy Hodgson's side in recent weeks and they come into this fixture on the back of a five game winless streak, 1-1 draws against West Ham and Newcastle their only Premier League returns across that stretch. A 1-0 defeat at home to Spurs last week means Palace now sit in 17th, only out of the bottom three on goal difference. Out to 18.017/1 at the peak of the Hodgson-fuelled resurgence, Palace are back to 3.1511/5 to be relegated on the Betfair Exchange.
Hodgson is without almost his entire first-choice backline with Scott Dann, Mamadou Sakho, Jeff Schlupp and Joel Ward out, alongside Timothy Fosu-Mensah who cannot face his parent club.
But perhaps it's of greater significance that they are still without main attacking threat, Wilfried Zaha. There's a damning Opta stat regarding the Ivorian attacker: Palace have lost all eight Premier League games without Zaha this season, scoring just once and conceding 18 in these games.
Chance for United to gain much-needed momentum
After suffering a few poor results in the opening months of the year, United come into this one on a high having fought back from a goal down to inflict a major defeat on a Champions League rival. A goal and an assist from Romelu Lukaku saw Jose Mourinho's side come from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1, a result that pushed United back into second and as short as 1.121/8 on the Betfair Exchange to register a Top Four finish.
Unlike Liverpool and Spurs, two of their rivals for a Champions League finish, United are not in European action in the week and can unleash all their big guns on Palace as they look to shore up their place in the leading quartet.
Mourinho is without a quartet of potential first team choices in defenders Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo, and midfelders Marouanne Fellaini and Ander Herrera.
Low-scoring away win looks likely
Palace's poor form and injuries has pushed their price to win the match out to 7.06/1. United may be away from home but Betfair customers still rate them at 1.584/7 to take all three points here, the draw is 4.3100/30.
While Palace are patched-up, let's not forget that they ran Spurs very close last weekend, the north Londoners winning via a late Harry Kane goal. They will probably set out with a similar defensive mindset for this and we could be in for a similar low-scoring affair.
If keen on backing the visitors - and United are very good on the road with seven wins, three draws and four defeats away from Old Trafford - it would be wise to look for bigger odds elsewhere.
Given Palace's problems in attack - they haven't scored more than once in a Premier League game since beating Southampton in the opening game of 2018 - a United win without conceding could reward. It's an option at 7/5 on the Betfair Sportsbook. Similarly, a United win coupled with under 2.5 goals in the match is 23/10.
Unders the rightful favourite in goals market
Talking goals, unders is (just) the favourite in the over/under 2.5 goals market, trading at 1.9210/11. That seems right to me. After a patch of high-scoring run of games following Roy Hodgson's appointment Palace's last four home fixtures in the Premier League have yielded just four goals. It's a similar story with United, last weekend's 2-1 defeat of Chelsea broke a run of four top-flight fixtures going under 2.5.
Everything points to a tight game under the Selhurst Park floodlights.
Neil Swarbrick usually needs a bit of persuasion before reaching for his cards, averaging just 2.5 per game.