Crystal Palace v Liverpool: Dodgy defences should ensure entertainment

Joe Dyer
27 October 2016

Liverpool's potent attack should be able to carry them past Palace's challenge

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A flying Liverpool take their title challenge to Selhurst Park for a Saturday evening rendezvous with former forward Christian Benteke and his Crystal Palace team-mates. Expect goals, says Joe Dyer...

"A pair of Opta stats point strongly to goals in this one: Liverpool are without a clean sheet in their last 10 away Premier League games; Palace haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League games, last stopping Everton in April."

Recommended Bet
Back Liverpool/Both Teams to Score double @ 23/10

Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Saturday October 29, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Crystal Palace

A promising run of form has been curtailed by sucessive away defeats and Palace come into the game in 11th place, a very solid midtable positions and probably right where many will predict they'll finish the season. After a somewhat wobbly finish to the 2015-16 season the club look a more solid proposition now. The addition of Christian Benteke, signed from Saturday's opponents for £32m in the summer, has given the team a proven goalscorer. That is an absolutely vital part of any club's armoury at this level and watching Benteke will be fascinating. The Belgian forward clearly found his Anfield experience frustrating and will be especially fired up for this evening clash under the floodlights at Selhurst Park.

Palace manager Alan Pardew has a near fully fit squad to select from with Cedric Souare a long-term absentee and Jason Puncheon a minor doubt.

Liverpool

There is probably no set of Premier League fans happier than the Anfield faithful at the moment. Tuesday night's 2-1 defeat of Spurs in the league cup meant Jurgen Klopp's men are unbeaten in 10 league and cup games since losing at Burnley in August, scoring 26 goals across that run (18 in the Premier League). Only goal difference keeps Klopp's men from the Premier League summit and it looks like the absence of European football from the Anfield diet, coupled with a settled and potent midfield and attack is going to make Liverpool massive players in the title race, where they currently trade as 4.67/2 second favourites.

Klopp is free to pick his strongest XI for this fixture with only a handful of fringe players unavailable. Daniel Sturridge will be hoping his two goals in midweek will force him into the starting lineup but it seems clear that Klopp prefers the claims of Roberto Firmino up top and I'd be surprised if the Englishman was to start.

Match Odds

With Liverpool in such storming form it's little surprise to see them trading at odds-on for the win, and there will be more than a few happy to take the 1.768/11 on another three points for the title hopefuls.

Palace, who have only won one of their four home fixtures in the league, are 5.24/1 to take all three points. The draw trades at 4.1.

Most punters will be keen to back an away win but there are trends which suggest we can do that at a bigger price than 1.768/11.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

A pair of Opta stats point strongly to goals in this one: Liverpool are without a clean sheet in their last 10 away Premier League games; Palace haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League games, last stopping Everton in April.

All told the price on Overs doesn't look too short at 1.84/5, though you can get the same on Both Teams to Score which, given neither defence is used to shutting out the opposition may be a better bet.

Match Odds + Over 2.5 Goals double/Match Odd + BTTS double

With such strong trends pointing to Liverpool and goals it's an obvious move to look at combining those outcomes into a bigger priced bet. Looking at the Betfair Sportsbook, Liverpool/BTTS can be backed at 23/10 and Liverpool/Overs at 29/20. With just one clean sheet between the pair in the Premier League this season, Benteke seeking his revenge and Liverpool firing from all angles I think it's worth chancing our arms with the bigger odds bet. It was a winning bet for us in midweek and it can hopefully cop again.

Ref Watch

Relatively card-happy whistle merchant Neil Swarbrick takes charge for this one. The Preston-born ref averages 4.4 yellows per match this season but has not dished out a red card. He officiated during Liverpool's 2-1 defeat of West Brom last weekend, where only Jordan Henderson was booked (alongside two Baggies).