Crystal Palace v Arsenal: Freefalling Eagles to continue their descent

Kevin Hatchard
27 October 2018

Roy Hodgson's Palace haven't scored a single goal at home in the league

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Arsenal are on an extraordinary run of form, while Crystal Palace aren't winning and aren't scoring. Kevin Hatchard's backing the visitors...

"Palace have lost their last three league games, while Arsenal are on the crest of a wave."

Back Arsenal to win at 1.84/5

Crystal Palace v Arsenal
Sunday 28 October, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports

Eagles better off than last term, but still in trouble

After last season's remarkable turnaround - they stayed up comfortably despite losing their first seven matches of the campaign - Crystal Palace fans won't be panicking at this stage, but it's hardly been an encouraging start. The Eagles have scored just five goals in nine games, and have collected just seven points, leaving them hovering above the dropzone.

Palace have lost their last three matches, and worryingly they have only faced one of the current top five so far. Star player Wilfried Zaha has scored more PL goals this season than the rest of the squad put together, and none of the actual centre-forwards at the club have scored at all. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

To make matters worse, the Opta stats suggest that Palace must go against recent history to overcome Arsenal this weekend. Manager Roy Hodgson hasn't won any of his last nine clashes with the Gunners (the last victory was ten years ago as Fulham boss), and Palace as a club have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League meetings with the north London giants.

Max Meyer and Alexander Sorloth could return after illness, Christian Benteke is injured, and Zaha is expected to shake off a minor knock.

Gunners still firing after passing Lisbon test

Arsenal extended their winning streak to eleven games in all competitions on Thursday, as they became the first team this season to stop Sporting from winning at the Jose Alvalade. Danny Welbeck scored a second-half winner after the Gunners had weathered a few storms in the Portuguese capital.

New Arsenal boss Unai Emery's attention to detail and desire to constantly improve has rubbed off on his charges, and the Gunners are playing some outstanding football. A few wobbles in games (for example the opening exchanges of the comeback win against Leicester) suggest there is still room for improvement, but it seems clear that the team is ahead of schedule. Arsenal seem like genuine contenders for a top-four finish, having missed out on Champions League qualification in back-to-back seasons at the end of Arsene Wenger's reign.

Emery inherited a fine squad which included top-drawer attacking options like Mesut Ozil, Alexander Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The latter has scored goals from the moment he arrived from Borussia Dortmund - the Opta stats show he has scored a goal every 104.6 minutes in the Premier League, the best ratio in the competition's history.

Arsenal were dreadful on the road in the final months of Wenger's reign, but under Emery they are not only winning, but winning consistently. Admittedly most of those games have been against weak opposition, but the Gunners have won five in a row away from home in league and cup, and that's an impressive sequence.

Emery could make several changes to his side after the win in Lisbon, with Lacazette, Ozil and Lucas Torreira all potentially returning to the starting line-up. Left-back remains a problem position, with both Nacho Monreal and Sead Kolasinac struggling with injuries.

Gunners the rightful favourites, at an attractive price

Arsenal are trading at 1.84/5 to take maximum points here, and I'm amazed they aren't shorter given the form of the two sides.

Palace aren't winning or even scoring, while Arsenal have been transformed by Emery. I'm more than happy to back the visitors to win.

Palace's scoring struggles could justify unders bet

Under 2.5 Goals is the outsider here at 2.427/5, and you can see why, because six of Arsenal's last eight league games have featured at least three goals. However, Palace haven't scored a single goal at home yet, and their last four top-flight home matches have featured fewer than three goals.

There's certainly a case to be made for backing No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.466/4, especially when you consider that Arsenal have kept clean sheets in four of their last seven games in all competitions.

If you want to use the Same Game Multi feature on the Sportsbook, you could back Arsenal to win, No Goalscorer in the Crystal Palace First To Score For Their Team market and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang at 4/5 at combined odds of 6.61.