Chelsea v Liverpool: Expect goals as Klopp's entertainers come to town

Antonio Conte has started well as Chelsea manager
Antonio Conte has started well as Chelsea manager
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Luke Moore is on a rip-roaring run of form - securing 12 points of profit for his columns in a little over a month. Here he turns his attention to the big Friday night game at Stamford Bridge...

"Friday night, under the lights, a fierce recent rivalry - it has all the ingredients to make a classic. And yes, I may be harking back to the classic 4-4 Champions League game in 2009, but there have been a good few high-scoring games since then too, and so at the price I'm very happy to have a tickle."

Chelsea v Liverpool
Friday September 16, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Chelsea

Antonio Conte's Chelsea currently sit second in the Premier League table, their only blemish a disappointing 2-2 draw against Swansea last time out. It's vital that the Blues bide their time and position themselves within touching distance of the top of the league; when those European fixtures start coming thick and fast, Conte's men will be well-rested and eager to make their non-European participation count, much as Friday's opponents Liverpool did under Brendan Rodgers when finishing second.

Conte's no-nonsense style has worked wonders early on as he gets to grips with English football, but some would argue this is his first real test as Chelsea boss - Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool won at Stamford Bridge in October of last year, and the home side have only kept one clean sheet on their own patch in their last 14 home games.

Influential defender and club captain John Terry will miss this game with an ankle injury.


Liverpool

One thing you can guarantee with the current iteration of Liverpool is that it's never dull. A 3-4 against Arsenal on the opening day and a big win against champions Leicester last time out have bookended a draw against Tottenham and a poor defeat against newly-promoted Burnley.

The Reds appear hugely capable of scoring goals, and their movement and tempo is delicious at times, but at the back they are shaky. Really shaky. And they need to address that quick-smart ahead of playing a team of Chelsea's ability.

But as I said up there, they won on this territory last season, fairly handily as well, so Klopp knows how to get it done.

Mamadou Sakho and Emre Can will sit this one out through injury.


Match Odds

Chelsea start as favourites, as you'd expect. 2.3611/8 is the biggest they've been for a home Premier League game this season though - the market knows that the Reds (who trade at 3.3512/5) are dangerous.

I won't be playing in the Match Odds market on this game, but if I was forced to I'd put up a home win - Liverpool are very unreliable at the back and Chelsea look a lot more business-like currently.

The Draw is available at a chunky-looking 3.55.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is a market I'm hugely interested in playing in. Chelsea v Liverpool is a modern classic of a Premier League fixture, and although Opta tell us that on average we only see 2.44 goals per game in this one, I'm advising a back of Over 2.5 Goals at 1.824/5.

Friday night, under the lights, a fierce recent rivalry - it has all the ingredients to make a classic. And yes, I may be harking back to the classic 4-4 Champions League game in 2009, but there have been a good few high-scoring games since then too, and so at the price I'm very happy to have a tickle.

If you think Liverpool's backline can withstand the pressure of a home Chelsea side, you're welcome to back Unders at 2.226/5, but seriously, good luck to you if you do.


To Score

Diego Costa is the obvious play in this market, against a Liverpool defence who haven't looked settled yet this season. He should be available to back at around 2.546/4 or better between now and kick off and he's one to look at. The Brazilian-born Spaniard has scored four in the Premier League already and looks to be flourishing under his new boss.


Ref Watch

The referee for this one is the experienced Martin Atkinson. This will be his fourth match of the season, and on average he's dished out 20pts per game. It might be tempting to back 25pts and under at a fat 3.55/2 price as a result, but remember this game has been fiercely-contested recently, and so might be the exception rather than the rule.


Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.824/5 (2pts)
Back Diego Costa to score at 2.546/4 or better (1pt)

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Luke Moore 2016/17 P/L

Staked: 13pts
Returned: 25.31pts
P/L: +12.31pts

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