Chelsea v Southampton: Saints to take a point at Stamford Bridge

Southampton striker - Danny Ings
Danny Ings has revitalised his career at St Mary's

Chelsea and Southampton meet at Stamford Bridge on Boxing Day and Paul Robinson is predicting another frustrating afternoon at home for the Blues.

Southampton have performed with credit on their travels this year, and aside from the 3-0 defeat they suffered at Turf Moor on the opening day, they haven't been beaten by more than a single goal margin since.

Back The Draw @ 5.79/2

Chelsea v Southampton
Thursday December 26, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

Can Blues build on Spurs win?

Chelsea put a poor run behind them with a bang on Sunday, as they went to Spurs and beat them 2-0, in quite comprehensive style.

Willian got both the goals, but the whole team played well, and Frank Lampard must be applauded for outwitting his former boss, Jose Mourinho.

That being said, they are far from the finished article, and the fact remains that they have lost four of their last six Premier League fixtures. Perhaps most disappointing of all, they were beaten at home by both West Ham and Bournemouth.

Mateo Kovacic was booked on Sunday, which means he misses out through suspension for this clash. Jorginho will no doubt come in, and I wouldn't view that as a negative at all, as the Brazilian has looked like a different player this season.

Southampton on an upward curve

The Saints picked up a huge three points at Villa Park on Saturday, a result which saw them move out of the relegation zone.

Ralph Hasenhüttl was a man under severe pressure following his team's 9-0 drubbing at home to Leicester, but he and his players have shown tremendous character since then, and they have now won three of their last five outings - and just two defeats in six.

Danny Ings' career appeared to be finished at the top level after he suffered not one, but two terrible injuries while at Liverpool. He has been revitalised on the South Coast though, and a brace against Villa took his tally to 11 league goals for the current campaign.

As for the team news, it would appear quite likely that Hasenhüttl will play a very similar, if not identical, side to the one that won at the weekend. However, with Palace coming up at home on the 28th, there is always the chance of some rotation.

Spoils to be shared

The Blues are a warm-order to take the three points for this match, as they are currently trading at around the 1.384/11 mark on the Betfair Exchange.

They would have been a similar price - if not shorter - to beat both West Ham and Bournemouth though, and they have also failed to beat Leicester, Sheffield United and Liverpool at home this term.

In fact, it's just four wins from nine in front of their own fans this year, and a worrying pattern has started to emerge. If they don't score early, they struggle to break teams down and/or take their chances.

Southampton have performed with credit on their travels this year, and aside from the 3-0 defeat they suffered at Turf Moor on the opening day, they haven't been beaten by more than a single goal margin since.

Even better than that, they have won at Brighton, Sheffield United and Aston Villa, and picked up a point at both Wolves and Arsenal.

Goals have come freely on the road too, as they have netted in their last eight away from St Mary's, with a dozen goals being scored during that period.

The 9.89/1 for a Saints win is tempting, but I think the draw at 5.79/2 is the safest bet. I also wouldn't put you off from backing a 1-1 correct score at 12.011/1.

Opta also tells us that Southampton and Chelsea drew 0-0 in this exact fixture last season - Saints have never
kept consecutive away clean sheets against the Blues in the top-flight.

Glut of goals not guaranteed

The markets are suggesting that there will be plenty of goals in this game as Over 2.5 is 1.538/15 and Under 2.5 is 2.829/5.

Southampton are currently on a run of four straight away fixtures to finish with at least three goals, and both teams found the net in each of their last six.

Chelsea can't boast the same kind of entertainment levels as that though - not at Stamford Bridge anyway. Since their 2-1 defeat to Liverpool, five of their last six in front of their own fans have ended with two goals or fewer, and they fired blanks in two of their last three.

I definitely think that there will be goals in this game, but I am not convinced that there will be over three. This is a market I am happy to leave alone, to be honest.

2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 33pts
Returned: 34.04pts
P/L: +1.04pts

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