West Ham v Burnley: Hammers to edge it by the single goal

Michail Antonio
Michail Antonio will lead the line for the Hammers in this one.

Rather than the straight win, a Hammers victory by the single goal looks the stand-out bet in a tight match, says Jamie Pacheco...

"Two of Burnley's last three games ended in defeats by the single goal and all three of West Ham’s recent wins were just by one goal, too."

West Ham v Burnley
Saturday January 16, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

Moyes doing fine job

David Moyes can be pretty pleased with his work at what is practically the halfway mark of the season.

Out went a few of the more creative players who weren't pulling their weight including Felipe Anderson (on loan at Porto), Jack Wilshere (contract terminated), Sebastian Haller (sold) and Manuel Lanzini (out of favour but still at the club).

Among the better performers have been attacking left-back Aaron Cresswell, all-action England midfielder Declan Rice, goalscoring hard man Tomas Soucek and keeper Lukas Fabianski.

With Haller now gone it's clear Moyes intends to play Michail Antonio (fit again) as much as he can but that might be a problem with his poor injury record; there's no real Plan B if he gets crocked again.

Haller120121.jpg

Clarets in desperate need of a striker

Burnley's defeat to Manchester United in midweek was a bit typical of their season so far.

They worked tirelessly, defended well for most of the game but when they eventually conceded, you never thought they'd get back in the game.

You could argue they deserved a point for their effort. Or that they didn't because they hardly tried to score.

Not for the first time you'll hear this written on a preview of mine: they desperately need an alternative to Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes and if they don't get one in January, it could cost them.

Single goal win the way to go

The Hammers are 1.855/6 and at first glance that looks about right. They're a full 10 points better off in the table and on a decent run that has seen them draw three and win one in the Premier League in their last four, and secure their passage to the next round of the FA Cup courtesy of a narrow win over Stockport.

As ever, you'd think Burnley will be playing for a low-scoring draw and consider that a decent result if they get one. It pays 3.7511/4 and doesn't look a bad option.

Sean Dyche Walking 1280.jpg

The head-to-head record however suggests West Ham haven't had it all their own way at home to this lot. The last four here have resulted in two wins-apiece though this is admittedly a better West Ham side than what we've seen in recent years and a slightly weaker Burnley one.

The return of Antonio to the starting line-up is crucial as far as I'm concerned and rather than the odds-on quote about the hosts, I'd rather go with the 9/4 that West Ham win by a single goal. Two of Burnley's last three games ended in defeats by the single goal and all three of West Ham's recent wins were just by one goal, too.

So that looks a perfectly plausible outcome at a decent price.

Soucek could be an option on the Exchange

As West Ham's main threat in attack, there may be some takers of the 13/10 that Antonio had score on his comeback. But we'll have to wait and see just how fit he is and I'd be surprised if he lasts more than 70 minutes so you may not get full value for your money.

Jarrod Bowen (5/2) made a strong start to the season but has now gone seven games without a goal so that price looks too short.

Our man Soucek has five goals in 17 games which is excellent but sadly the Sportsbook aren't giving much away, chalking him up at just 13/5, well aware of his goal threat. But try getting 5.04/1 or better on the Exchange; you could well get matched.

Decent same game multi-bet option>

If it's a same-game multi-bet you want, consider this one: 62% of West Ham's home games have gone under 3.5 goals and for Burnley away games it's the same percentage. So take the 11/50 on under 3.5 goals and combine it with a half time draw (evens), which would follow the script of this being a slow-burner. That comes to 2.29.

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JAMIE PACHECO'S 2020-21 PREMIER LEAGUE P AND

Points wagered: 27
Points Returned:28.95
P and L: +2.95.

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