Burnley v Watford: Don't expect entertainment at Turf Moor

Walter Mazzarri's Watford recorded a good win against Man United last time out
Walter Mazzarri's Watford recorded a good win against Man United last time out
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After two more winners last weekend, Luke Moore is back to preview Watford's visit to Turf Moor to face Burnley...


"There's no way Burnley are going to give anything up cheaply here. Opta tell us that the home side have conceded just five times in their last 16 at their own ground, and never more than once in a game."

Burnley v Watford
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1


Burnley

It's been a difficult start to life back in the Premier League for Sean Dyche's Burnley. Just one win in their opening five games means they sit in the lower echelons of the top flight table. But, this is hardly a time to panic - they've had some tough fixtures, and there's a long way to go.

If Dyche is a manager that pinpoints must-win games in his quest to ensure survival this year, then Monday night's visit of Watford would surely be somewhere near the top of the list, but the Hornets are in good nick, and the Clarets will need to be at their best to get past them on current form.

Burnley will be missing Andre Gray who is serving a suspension until 29th October.


Watford

After they followed up a good win over West Ham with a memorable defeat of Manchester United last weekend, Walter Mazzarri's Watford are looking for a hat-trick of wins on Monday night, something that'll solidify their top half status.

The Hornets have been among the most exciting teams in the league so far this season when it comes to goals - their five Premier League fixtures so far have garnered 19 - only struggling West Ham have seen more.

Influential defender Daryl Janmaat will miss out with a shoulder injury.


Match Odds

Watford will go into this game as slight favourites, which isn't hugely surprising given their form and Burnley's difficult start - at time of writing, seven places in the league separates these two teams. But, it is of course still early days, and given that Dyche's men have only conceded two at home so far and have a reputation as a solid outfit on their own patch, Watford could find it hard to break them down.

3.185/40 is the price on the home win and that's the most tempting of the three outcomes in this market, when considering value. The Draw is available at 3.259/4.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think anyone I know is predicting goals in this one, despite Watford scoring seven in their last two - for me this is a game where the odd goal nicks it, and I'm slightly surprised to see unders priced up at around 1.84/5. I'll happily take that as a good bet; there's no way Burnley are going to give anything up cheaply here. Opta tell us that the home side have conceded just five times in their last 16 at their own ground, and never more than once in a game.

Overs is the bigger price at 2.26/5.


Ref Watch

Mike Jones takes charge of this one, and it's his fifth game of the season in all leagues and his third in the top flight. On average, he's dished out just 20pts per game in the Premier League, and I don't expect this one to be particularly feisty so it might be worth backing 25pts and under at anything better than 3.02/1.


Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.84/5 (2pts)
Back 25pts and under in Booking Odds market at 3.02/1 or better


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Luke Moore 2016/17 P/L

Staked: 16pts
Returned: 31.49pts
P/L: +15.49pts

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