Andrew Atherley says Burnley are good value for a final-day win at Turf Moor...
"Burnley have not lost to a team below them since the 2-1 home defeat by Aston Villa on New Year's Day and their record in that category since then is W6 D2 L0."
Back Burnley to win at [2.44]
Burnley v Brighton
Sunday 26 July, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports
Back in the top 10
Burnley have already secured their second top 10 finish in three seasons and one more point here would give them a bigger total than in 2017-18 when they finished seventh and qualified for the Europa League.
Sean Dyche continues to work wonders on a small budget and he has propelled the Clarets upwards again after last season's 15th place, which was compromised by their early struggles with the additional demands of competing in Europe.
Stuck near the bottom
Brighton can look forward to a fourth season in the Premier League after a third consecutive finish in the bottom six but with just enough breathing space to survive.
Graham Potter was hired to instil a more attractive approach but his side have scored only two more goals than in Chris Hughton's final season.
This summer's recruitment and next season's results will offer a more definitive answer about whether there is going to be a Potter revolution.
Clarets in good form
Burnley were comfortably mid-table when the season went into lockdown and they have been one of the better teams since the restart, ranking seventh with a record of W4 D3 L1.
The dropped points have all come against teams above them in the table (defeat at Manchester City and draws with Liverpool, Wolves and Sheffield United).
That leaves four wins out of four against teams below them (Watford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Norwich) and all of them have been to nil.
Looking further back, Burnley have not lost to a team below them since the 2-1 home defeat by Aston Villa on New Year's Day and their record in that category since then is W6 D2 L0.
On that basis Burnley's win odds of [2.44] look decent value.
Brighton, for all that they want to move to more progressive football, have a form profile quite like Burnley's in that they are solid and dependable more than exciting.
Potter's side are unbeaten in their last six league games on the road, drawing against West Ham (3-3), Sheffield United (1-1), Wolves (0-0), Leicester (0-0) and Southampton (1-1) but beating only bottom club Norwich (1-0).
Their draw rate (14 out of 37, 38%) is the joint-highest in the Premier League and no side has won fewer Premier League games in 2020 than them (two). Both of those victories have been since the restart and the standout result was the 2-1 home win over Arsenal (the other win was against Norwich).
On form and at the odds the call has to be a Burnley win.
Burnley have averaged a goal per game since the restart, while Brighton have managed just five goals in eight games. Only Crystal Palace and Norwich, the worst two teams since the restart, have scored fewer than the Seagulls in this period.
The trend towards under 2.5 goals is not as strong as it once was with Burnley but it is still there (56% at home).
Brighton have an even split of unders/overs on the road, but there is a strong trend towards under 2.5 goals against teams in the middle eight of the table (five out of seven unders).
The logical call is under 2.5 goals at [1.98] and arguably it should be shorter, although the odds are influenced by the tendency for final-day games to be high scoring in general.
Since their return to the Premier League in 2016-17, Burnley have lost all three of their matches on the final day of the season, with all three coming at home (v West Ham, Bournemouth and Arsenal). Brighton are [3.15] to win.
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Back Burnley to win at [2.44]