Burnley v Bournemouth
Saturday 10 November, 15:00
It seems Burnley are this season's 'strong at home but rubbish away' team. The discrepancy is extreme. They have the same number of home wins this term as second-placed Arsenal (four) while no side has picked up fewer points on their travels.
Having taken just one away point and scored only a single away goal, Burnley fans will be relieved that they're playing host on Saturday.
Thanks to those strong Turf Moor performances, Sean Dyche's men are a very respectable 15th although that's just two points above the relegation zone.
Although Bournemouth backers will note the number '3' in the losses column of Burnley's home record, two of those are by single-goal margins to Arsenal (0-1) and Manchester City (1-2). Anyone going to Burnley isn't going to pick up cheap points.
One boost to the home team is that they have Tom Heaton fit again to return in goal. A recent Opta analysis on Premier League goalkeepers put the England stopper top of a chart based on expected saves from certain types of shot.
Heaton is ranked first having prevented 5.06 goals according to the numbers while Hull's David Marshall is bottom having conceded 7.51 more than the stats say he should have done.
After the dramatic and emotional high of coming from 2-0 and 3-1 down to beat Liverpool 4-3 in injury-time, this could be a classic case of a side coming back down to earth or at least reverting to the mean.
Bournemouth were hugely impressive against Jurgen Klopp's men and deserved all they got for turning the tide from a seemingly lost position.
That win took them up to 10th place and, like Burnley, the main reason for their success is strong home form. In fact, both sides have taken 13 points via four wins and a draw in front of their own fans.
But, again like Saturday's opponents, the Cherries have looked fragile on the road. Overall, they've returned to the away dressing room as losers in four of their seven matches while two others have been draws.
Scoring has been a problem too. Just five away strikes means their goal difference on the road is -8.
One other factor is that between his two golden spells with Bournemouth, Eddie Howe had a tough time in charge of Burnley, eventually returning home for family reasons with the Clarets in 16th place in the Championship.
He'll get a good welcome but it could end up being a long journey back south.
Burnley are 3.613/5 to rack up another vital home win while visitors Bournemouth are [2.26 favourites] to follow up their glorious victory over Liverpool. The draw - there's been just one of those at Turf Moor this season - is 3.45.
History tells us that Burnley have never lost at home to Bournemouth in 13 matches, winning seven.
A more recent stat to consider is that Howe's men haven't won back-to-back games in the Premier League since March. They've had five chances to do that and failed each time.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Crowds at Burnley home games have witnessed 19 goals this season, 11 of those from the Clarets. The breakdown is: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3. In other words, after five successes for Unders, the last three have sparked payouts to Overs backers.
As for Bournemouth on the road, it's an even split with four of their eight games producing over 2.5 goals.
With a case for both, Overs at 2.04 would be the marginal call.
Only won Burnley player, Sam Vokes, has scored more than a single Premier League goal this season. The Welshman has four goals this term and two in his last three home games (Crystal Palace and Everton) suggests the 12/5 anytime is decent.
For Bournemouth, Callum Wilson has been the main man and his five strikes include goals in the last two games against Arsenal and Liverpool (penalty). He's 6/4 for another.
One interesting candidate for the Cherries is Nathan Ake. The on-loan Chelsea defender is the one they aim for at set-pieces and it appears he has an eye for a goal.
He's been worth his weight in gold in recent weeks with the winners against both Stoke and Liverpool. He's 22/1 to sore the last goal for a third time in four matches and 15/2 to net anytime.
The best pro Burnley stat I like is that they're top of the home half-time table.
If matches were decided after 45 minutes, Dyche's men would have four wins, four draws and 16 points from their eight games at Turf Moor.
Pumped up by the home crowd against a Bournemouth side who were 2-0 down
at the break to Liverpool before launching their comeback, Burnley look value at 4.1 to be in front when the half-time whistle goes.
Martin Atkinson takes charge of this 3pm kick-off in Lancashire. He's shown 62 yellows and a red this season from 14 matches.
Perhaps unexpectedly for a side that has to squeeze everything out of what they have, Burnley are top of the Fairplay table this season with just 21 yellow and no reds. Bournemouth are seventh so, in theory, Atkinson shouldn't be too troubled.
Back Burnley to be leading at half-time at 4.1
The Cherries are winless in their last six games in all competitions against Burnley (D3 L3), last beating them 5-0 in November 1998 when both sides were in the third tier
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