Burnley West Ham: Hammers to concede, Hammers to get at least a point

Jesse Lingard
Jesse Lingard has been a breath of fresh air for West Ham

This match could go the same as many of West Ham's other matches with goals at both ends and the visitors getting something from the game, says Jamie Pacheco...

"Which brings me to my second view. That both teams will score. I’ve gone through the numbers already above and despite my respect towards Pope, I don’t really trust either defence."

Burnley West Ham
Monday May 3, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Pope excellent, Dyche ponders future

It's job done for Burnley and far as Sean Dyche and the club are concerned.

A surprising 4-0 win at Wolves last week that owed much to an unlikely Chris Wood hat-trick has put Burnley on 36 points and that should just about be enough to stay up. A win here would definitely seal the deal but it's Fulham and Leeds up next and surely those two games will produce the necessary points to be 'mathematically safe' as they say.

Nick Pope didn't have much to do at Wolves but has probably been their best player his season. I'm not sure why it's even a debate as to who's the better keeper for England between him and Jordan Pickford. Pope is far more consistent and I can't remember the last time he made any sort of blunder.

Will Sean Dyche want to go through yet another season of managing a workmanlike side to another survival job? Let's see.

Nick Pope 1280.jpg

Tough couple of weeks for Hammers

The Hammers will be bitterly disappointed at that late defeat at Newcastle two weeks ago, though a narrow 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea last time out is slightly more understandable.

They're still fifth and gatecrashing the Champions League isn't out of the question but it will be hard work from here and a defeat in this one may just mean their race is run in that regard.

They'd love to keep hold of Jesse Lingard, the catalyst behind their excellent late season run and the man who makes thigs happen. Another loan is unlikely so they'll hope Man Utd are willing to sell, that they can afford him and that he chooses to go there rather than somewhere else.

Little or no value in match odds market

It's 2.466/4 West Ham, 3.185/40 Burnley and 3.613/5 the draw.

So probably what you'd expect given their standings in the table.

None of those prices makes much appeal to me. The hosts haven't won at Turf Moor in any of their last seven and they've played weaker teams than West Ham in that period.

The Hammers on the other hand are fresh from back-to-back losses and it may just be that with a slightly limited squad, they're running out of steam at just the wrong time.

The recent head-to-head between the two doesn't help us much, either. Burnley won the last two but before that it was a draw and a West Ham win so there aren't too many clear trends there, either.

BTTS looking a strong selection

It's evens the pair on the over/under 2.5 goals market.

It's two 'overs' and two 'unders' in terms of the last four played here between these two. In terms of season-long performances, a huge 68% of West Ham's way games have gone 'overs' bit for Burnley home games, it's a paltry 25%. So, you can see why the market is a bit confused.


The better bet, albeit at a shorter price, is that both teams score. It's exactly 50% of Burnley home games that have seen BTTS this season and 56% of West Ham away games where the same has happened. But if you take West Ham in all league games this campaign, they've been involved in 19 BTTS matches, a record high alongside Manchester United and Newcastle.

It's 1.824/5 that both teams score in this one.

Best bet in the bet Builder section

In the Bet Builder section, I'm going to merge my two main views on the match.

The first is that the Hammers won't lose, meaning taking them at 1/3 on the Double Chance market looks the way to go. They've had a tough couple of weeks but continue to look a good, hard-working side who have that little bit of magic upfront with Lingard, and occasionally Jarred Bowen.

They've scored in 27 games this season which is always a good sign and I expect that trend to continue.

Which brings me to my second view. That both teams will score. I've gone through the numbers already above and despite my respect towards Pope, I don't really trust either defence. West Ham's desire to actually try to win the game may just make it more open. In a tight game to call the double looks just about the best bet.


Staked: 40pts
Returned: 51.35pts
P/L +11.35


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