Simon Mail previews Burnley's game against Wolves and thinks the hosts are overpriced to earn a positive result at Turf Moor...
"Burnley are unbeaten in five games and their only defeat in their last 13 league matches came at Manchester City."
Burnley v Wolves
Live on BBC One
Burnley punching above their weight again
Burnley's tremendous form under Sean Dyche continued after his side ruined the champions' hopes of winning every Premier League game at Anfield this season. Jay Rodriguez's second-half equaliser earned an excellent 1-1 draw at Liverpool on Saturday. Burnley were indebted to goalkeeper Nick Pope after a series of impressive saves but it was once again more evidence of the team's effectiveness as they frustrated Jurgen Klopp's side.
Despite returning from the lockdown with a spate of injuries, Burnley have shown few signs of weakness. The Clarets are unbeaten in five games and their only defeat in their last 13 league matches came at Manchester City. Dyche consistently extracts the maximum from a modest squad limited by their budget constraints. Burnley are inside the top ten on merit and could yet sneak a place in the Europa League.
Wolves gearing up for European bid
Wolves' rapid progress under Nuno Espirito Santo shows no signs of slowing up and the club still have an outside chance of qualifying for the Champions League. Sixth in the table, it has been another exceptional campaign for Wanderers and the team still have the Europa League resumption to look forward to as they face Olympiakos in their delayed last-16 second leg next month.
Three successive wins following last month's restart were temporarily halted by disappointing defeats against Arsenal and Sheffield United. But Wolves responded impressively with a one-sided 3-0 victory at home to a lifeless Everton on Sunday. Raul Jimenez opened the scoring, with his 16th league goal of the season, before efforts from Leander Dendoncker and Diogo Jota sealed the win at Molineux.
Hosts look overpriced for victory
Burnley are [4.9] outsiders for this match and this seems a very dismissive price on a team that have consistently confounded the odds. Dyche's team may not be the most attractive to to watch but they are mightily effective and have looked one of the most well drilled sides since the competition resumed. Burnley have surprised West Ham and Liverpool in the last week so there is no reason why they cannot do the same against Wolves.
There is no doubting the technical ability in this Wolves team but the visitors certainly look short enough to win at just [1.96]. Wolves have failed to win ten of their 17 away matches this season and a trip to Burnley is far from straight forward. Wanderers have not managed to win on their last three visits to Turf Moor and they do not appeal at tight odds to win on their latest encounter.
The draw is available at [3.4] and that has to be of interest in a match involving Wolves. The visitors have drawn 13 matches this season, the second highest amount in the division, although none have come since the competition restarted. Weighing up the odds in this market, Burnley look overpriced and it is worth backing the hosts in some shape or form.
Burnley are not renowned for their scoring prowess, netting just 39 goals this season, but their defensive organisation makes them a difficult team to break down. Their last five games have seen no more than two goals scored each time. It is also worth noting the last 11 clashes between Burnley and Wolves have seen under 3.5 goals scored.
Wolves have a stronger attack but all of their six games since the league returned have seen three goals or less scored. Burnley drew 1-1 at Wolves earlier this season and the Clarets have lost just one of their last seven matches against them. Backing Burnley to claim either a win or a draw, with under 3.5 goals scored, looks a solid bet at 2.19 in a game where the outsiders should not be overlooked.
Nick Pope has kept 14 clean sheets for Burnley this season - the last English goalkeeper to keep more shutouts in a single Premier League campaign was Joe Hart in 2015-16 (15). Burnley are 13/5 to avoid conceding against Wolves.
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P/L 2019-20 season