Burnley v West Ham
Sunday 21 May, 15:00
Mission accomplished for Sean Dyche, who has kept Burnley up thanks largely to a tremendous home record that has reaped 33 of their 40 points.
This match seems likely to be the last chance to appear in a Burnley shirt for defender Michael Keane, who is set for a big-money summer move to one of the big six clubs following an impressive season in which he made his England debut.
Keane has missed the last two games with a calf injury and is rated 50-50 for a return, with Kevin Long set to deputise again.
Slaven Bilic has staved off relegation fears in the last few weeks of a difficult season that has seen the Hammers struggle to cope with the move to their new stadium and lose star player Dimitri Payet in controversial circumstances.
West Ham are 12th, two points ahead of Burnley. Currently Bilic's side are 20 points below their finishing total last season, when they were seventh, but they have not been helped by the disruption to their attack. Payet, who left in January, will still end the season with most assists for the Hammers, while their top scorer is Michail Antonio even though he has missed the last six-and-a-half games of the season with a hamstring problem.
Also on the injured list are Diafra Sakho, Mark Noble, Winston Reid and Cheikhou Kouyate. Andy Carroll, who has been struggling with a groin injury, could return.
It is a little surprising to see Burnley are as big as [2.42] after a season that has yielded 10 wins in 18 home games. That ranks them eighth on home form, better than any other side outside the top seven, and their record looks even better when you exclude the big six from the figures.
While Burnley have achieved some excellent results against the big six at Turf Moor, notably the 2-0 win over Liverpool in August that got their season up and running, their record against the rest is especially strong (W9 D2 L1). For their sole defeat, we have to go all the way back to their first game and a 1-0 loss to Swansea.
West Ham are still a reasonable side on the road (10th on away form) and it is fair to say that this looks one of the best prospects for an upset on the final day in a game that doesn't matter.
Yet the Hammers have won only four away matches this season and all of them were against teams that rank in the bottom five on home form.
In fact, their only points against teams ranked in the top 11 on home form were in draws at Manchester United (1-1) and Liverpool (2-2) back in December, but that was when Payet and Antonio were playing (and they scored the goals against Liverpool).
Final-day games always carry some risk, but on form there is no disputing Burnley are good value if they play to their best.
Burnley rank second-lowest for home games with under 2.5 goals (Manchester United are bottom of that ranking) with 12 out of 18 (67%) having unders. Looking at the figures only in home games against teams below the big six, they reveal a slight decrease to seven out of 12 (58%) having under 2.5 goals, which is linked to Burnley's greater win rate in those games.
West Ham, by contrast, rank high for over 2.5 goals on the road with 12 out of 18 (67%). Bilic's side come here scoreless in four matches, however, and that raises questions about them in so many ways.
Bobby Madley had a glut of high card counts early in the season but his games are now most likely to be in the 30-40 bookings points bracket.
Back Burnley to win at [2.42]
West Ham have lost the last game of the season in each of their last three Premier League campaigns, with each match coming away from home and the Hammers just scoring once. Burnley are 10/3 to win to nil with Betfair Sportsbook.
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Andrew Atherley 2016/17 Season P/L