Burnley v Southampton: Betfair market is underestimating the Clarets

Joe Dyer
13 January 2017

Andre Gray's goals in recent fixtures have helped take Burnley clear of the dropzone

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The Betfair market is keen on Southampton pulling off a rare top-flight away win but has it unfairly overlooked Burnley's terrific record at Turf Moor? Joe Dyer thinks so...

"Just one point separates the two teams in the table and simply contrasting their home/away form with the odds tells you that Burnley have to be the bet."

Burnley v Southampton
Saturday January 14, 15:00

Burnley

Powered by the goals of Andre Gray, Sean Dyche's men picked up a valuable pair of wins during the festive period and they face the last 18 matches of the Premier League season with an eight point advantage over 18th placed Sunderland. Backed in to 1.51/2 to go down, the Clarets now stand at 4.57/2 in Betfair's Relegation market. So far, so good for the Lancashire club.

Dyche looks to have his full team available to him with only minor doubts surrounding midfielders Scott Arfield, George Boyd and Johann Berg Gudmundsson.

Southampton

It's been an interesting season so far for the south coast club, intermittently impressive with some memorable moments - not least in midweek when beating Liverpool 1-0 in an EFL Cup semi-final first leg at St Mary's - but perhaps not quite as good as some seem to think. Saints go into the weekend in 10th, solidly mid-table, having lost their last three top-flight fixtures. They are capable of brilliance but also mediocrity.

Manager Claude Puel is still without top scorer Charlie Austin and also summer signing Sofiane Boufal while Jose Fonte looks to have finished his Southampton career having requested a transfer.

Match Odds

Do my eyes deceive me?

Burnley are 3.65 outsiders to emerge victorious after 90 minutes despite coming into the fixture having won their last three at Turf Moor, five of the last six, and seven in total from the 11 top-flight matches (one draw, three defeats) played in front of the faithful. In fact there is a phenomenal difference between Burnley's home and away form - just one of their 23 Premier League points has come on their travels.

By contrast, Southampton have picked up just a pair of wins in their 10 away games. Talented though they may be, they are not great travellers.

Just one point separates the two teams in the table and simply contrasting their home/away form with the odds tells you that Burnley have to be the bet.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Of the 10 Premier League games this weekend, only Watford v Middlesbrough is expected to serve up less goals than this one. That's probably right as these are two of the Premier League's worst attacks - only Boro and Hull have scored fewer than Saints' 19 goals, while Burnley's 22 is the fifth-worst tally in the top-flight. A warning, however: 19 of those have been scored at Turf Moor.

The Southampton defence has a big reputation but has been misfiring across Saints' losing streak, letting in nine goals across defeats to Spurs, West Brom and Everton.

Burnley can be more exciting than they're credited for - five of their last six at home have gone over 2.5, and the games against Sunderland, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace breached the 4.5 line.

At 1.728/11 overs may be a lay for some.

First Goal

Again I have to go against the market with a back of Burnley to score the first goal at 2.47/5. If you consider the game to be more even than the match odds suggest then it makes sense to take the longer price on Burnley registering first. The home side will come into this fresher - Southampton having played on Wednesday night.

Ref Watch

Paul Tierney - better known for his work in The Championship and League One - takes charge of his sixth Premier League match of the season. Tierney seems hesitant to show his cards when he officiates in the top-flight, averaging 3.2 yellows per fixture. He has not shown a red card in his five games so far. Southampton and Burnley are two of the best behaved teams in the league so this could be very light on cards.

Recommended Bets
Back Burnley to score the first goal @ 2.47/5
Back Burnley to win @ 3.65

Joe Dyer Premier League P/L

Staked: 10pts
Returned: 11.34pts
P&L: +1.34pts

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