Burnley are taking the scenic route towards safety with a number of draws and Dan Fitch thinks they will share a point again, when they take on Newcastle on Sunday...
"The hosts have drawn each of their last four games at Turf Moor, so it’s no surprise to see that the draw is relatively short."
Burnley 2.447/5 v Newcastle 3.55/2; The Draw 3.211/5
Sunday 11 April, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Burnley edge slowly towards safety
Though Burnley sit relatively safe in 15th place in the Premier League, they still have some work to do to protect their top flight status.
With 33 points after 30 games, the Clarets have a seven point lead over Fulham in 18th and have a game in hand. Of their remaining fixtures, this looks like one of their most winnable and would represent a huge step towards safety.
Looking forward, the summer might be the time to have a big clear out and rebuild the squad. Though the club has new owners, they have accrued a large amount of debt to purchase it, so it seems unlikely that there will be much money to spend that is not generated through sales. Fortunately, Burnley have some sellable assets such as Nick Pope, James Tarkowski, Dwight McNeil and Chris Wood. All are key players, but some might have to be sacrificed to fund a revamp.
Key to Burnley's future success will be keeping their manager Sean Dyche happy. Dyche could be without Erik Pieters for this game, after the defender had to go off against Southampton last weekend. Definitely out are Kevin Long, Robbie Brady and Ashley Barnes.
Wilson return pivotal as Newcastle search for a win
Newcastle did well to earn a valuable point last week against Spurs, but it's wins that they need if they are to drag themselves out of danger.
Against a side with as much talent as Tottenham, the Magpies can be pleased at having fought back from being behind to draw 2-2, thanks to a late goal from Joe Willock. It did however, stretch their run without a win to seven games (D4 L3).
That leaves Newcastle only three points ahead of Fulham, albeit with a game in hand. The potential return of striker Callum Wilson could be a game changer. He's back in contention having returned to training, while Allan Saint-Maximin made his return after injury, when he came off the bench against Spurs.
Steve Bruce still has a number of unavailable players. Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles and Isaac Hayden are all definitely out, while Andy Carroll remains a doubt.
No surprise to see draw short
Burnley are the 2.447/5 favourites, with the draw at 3.211/5 and Newcastle at 3.55/2.
The hosts have drawn each of their last four games at Turf Moor, so it's no surprise to see that the draw is relatively short at 3.211/5, in what looks likely to be a tight game, even if there is a winner. In five of Burnley's last seven matches (home or away), the game has seen a draw at half-time. You can back the half-time draw at 2.0811/10.
Goals come early with Burnley
The good folk at Opta inform us of Burnley's potential for scoring and conceding at the start of matches. Burnley have scored a higher share of their Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes this season, than any other side (33% - 8/24), while they have also conceded a league-high share in the same period (25% - 10/40).
With that statistic in mind, over 1.5 first-half goals looks a little big at 3.711/4. It's landed in each of Burnley's last five games.
Daily Offer - Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples
“Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.”
Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L
Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts