Dan Fitch can't see why struggling Everton are favoured to beat a Burnley side that are in good form.
"Burnley have won two of their three home games this season, beating Southampton and Norwich without conceding a goal and only losing to the Premier League leaders Liverpool."
Burnley [2.96] v Everton [2.66]; The Draw [3.4]
Saturday 5 October, 15:00
Burnley on the rise again
Before the season began Burnley were one of the favourites to be relegated from the Premier League, but though the campaign is only seven games old, the possibility of the club going down already looks remote.
The argument that Burnley would struggle was based purely on their brush with a relegation battle last season, when their slim squad was undoubtedly stretched by their involvement in the Europa League. With no European football to now worry about, Burnley have returned to being a competitive top flight side.
Their only defeats this season in the Premier League have come against Arsenal and Liverpool. Having finished seventh in the 2017-18 season, it seems as if Burnley - currently eleventh - are back to looking up rather than down.
Jack Cork picked up a shoulder injury in Burnley's 2-2 draw at Aston Villa last weekend and is a doubt for the visit of Everton. Danny Drinkwater is definitely out with an ankle injury.
More change in store at troubled Everton?
Everton are badly in need of points having lost their last three games in the Premier League.
As has been the case with Burnley, the pre-season predictions regarding Everton seem to have been off the mark. Tipped by many as a contender to break into the top six, Everton are in fifteenth position, with only seven points from as many games.
Since David Moyes left in 2013, Everton have had four different managers. If Marco Silva cannot turn things around quickly, then it won't be long before we're talking about who will replace him.
Silva will be without midfielders Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Andre Gomes for this crucial match. Bernard is also a doubt having missed the match with Manchester City last weekend through illness.
No reason for Everton to be favourites
Everton are the favourites to win this one at [2.68], with Burnley at [2.96] and the draw at [3.4].
Given the respective form of the teams, this makes little sense. Burnley have won two of their three home games, beating Southampton and Norwich without conceding a goal and only losing to the Premier League leaders Liverpool.
Burnley's odds are big enough that you can back them at [2.1] in the Draw No Bet market, which looks a very low risk wager. If you want to play it really safe then you can back Burnley to avoid defeat Double Chance and still get relatively chunky odds of [1.57].
Burnley can take advantage of poor defending
Burnley's renaissance this season has been built on their cutting edge in attack. Ashley Barnes started the campaign in fine form and in recent weeks his strike partner Chris Wood has been finding the net regularly, with Jay Rodriguez scoring his first goal since returning to the club against Aston Villa last weekend.
That's bad news for an Everton side that have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five Premier League games. Since Marco Silva took over in the summer of 2017, no Premier League club has conceded more than the 44 goals that Everton have let in from set-pieces.
Burnley are [2.8] to follow in the footsteps of Everton's recent opponents and score over 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals in the match is another option at [2.22].
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 176.00 pts
Returned: 179.92 pts
P/L: +3.92 pts
Back Burnley draw no bet against Everton at [2.1]
Back Burnley to score over 1.5 goals against Everton at [2.8]