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Brighton v Tottenham: Perfect chance for Spurs to bounce back

Harry Kane Spurs
Harry Kane: Has scored in three of his four games v Brighton for Spurs
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Andy Schooler says Saturday lunchtime's televised clash with Brighton is the ideal opportunity for Spurs to bounce back from their Champions League mauling.

"A defence which was torn apart by Serge Gnabry and Robert Lewandowski playing in one of Europe’s best teams will now face one struggling, again, to stay in the Premier League. There’s a world of difference."

Back Spurs to win @ 2.0

Brighton v Tottenham
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

There will be plenty of folk out there who simply wouldn't contemplate backing Spurs at around even money four days after a 7-2 home defeat.

I am not among them.

To me, this looks an almost-ideal game for Tottenham in their current state, one which has clearly been created, at least in part, by unrest behind the scenes. Both boss Mauricio Pochettino and captain Harry Kane have effectively admitted that.

Goal-shy Brighton

Brighton haven't won since the opening day and their six-game winless run has seen them score just two goals. They created very little against an otherwise leaky Chelsea defence last weekend.

That statistic helps highlight the Seagulls' long-standing problem on the goalscoring front. Last season, under different management, Brighton scored just 35 goals - seven fewer than any other side who survived.

To keep the stats coming, Brighton have now gone 15 home games without scoring twice in the same match.

New boss Graham Potter has undoubtedly tried to get Brighton playing more on the front foot and he's had some success when you consider their possession figure is up from 44% last season to 54% so far this. However, despite the new approach, goals remain in woefully short supply.

So a defence which was torn apart by Serge Gnabry and Robert Lewandowski playing in one of Europe's best teams will now face one struggling, again, to stay in the Premier League. There's a world of difference.

Brighton still have key defender Shane Duffy out, while Davy Propper (hamstring) is a doubt, so it's not even a home side at full strength.

Away-day blues

Of course, Spurs' issues also run deeper than Tuesday's home hammering in the Champions League.

The most off-putting element for potential backers is surely their away record - they've now won just two of their last 16 away games in all competitions, losing 10. In the league, they've taken just two points from the last 27 available on the road.

Yes, that's really poor, especially when you consider that at the start of that run Spurs were still genuinely in last season's title race, but it should also be given some perspective.

There have been many tough fixtures during it - three trips to Manchester City, two to Chelsea and one each to Liverpool, Arsenal and, two weeks ago, high-flying Leicester. It should also be remembered others came when Spurs were fully focused on the Champions League at the back end of last season.

So far in 2019/20, Spurs have drawn at champions City and local rivals Arsenal (in a game they led 2-0) and lost at Leicester, a match which they almost certainly would have won but for the narrowest VAR offside decision we've seen.

Value in Spurs' price

Neither should we forget that Spurs actually started well against Bayern. They led 1-0 with Son Heung-min causing all sorts of problems and were arguably the better side in the first third of the game.

Kane netted from the spot against the Germans and he continues to score goals aplenty. He's got five in seven in the league and notably has a strong record against Brighton, scoring in three of his four games against them in a Spurs shirt, including both matches at the Amex.

Other goal threats remain, as Son showed the other night. Dele Alli also has a point to prove now having been left out of England's latest squad this week.

Serge Aurier won't play here due to suspension but many will see that as a positive such has been the negative impact the Ivorian has had at times.

Clearly Spurs aren't at their best right now but man for man they have better players than their hosts in this game and it's not as if Brighton ([4.1]) are flying.

Spurs to win the match at [2.0] - you'd have got nowhere near that had this been the opening game of the season - looks to have plenty of value attached to it.

A potential way to boost that is to back Spurs/Spurs in the HT/FT market. Ten of their 14 league goals have come before the break (and only one of Brighton's five has). They've led at the break at Arsenal and Leicester already this season and, as already suggested, Brighton don't have the firepower of those two teams.

The Spurs/Spurs option can be backed at [3.3].

BrightonvTot.png

Focus on the defence

On the goal lines, I quite like the [2.18] about under 2.5 in this game.

Brighton may not score many but they are hardly wide open at the back either - five of their seven league games have featured less than three goals.

And while I've mentioned the potential for goals in the visitors' line-up, expect Pochettino to focus on his defence ahead of this one given what happened in midweek.

A 1-0 ([10.0]) or 2-0 ([12.0]) win here would no be a surprise.

Opta fact

Brighton are winless in their last eight home league games (D3 L5), last enduring a longer run in February 2010 (nine games).

Click here for full Opta stats on Brighton v Spurs

Listen to Betfair's Footbal...Only Bettor below for more best bets and tips for this Premier League weekend.

Andy Schooler's P/L 2019/20

Staked: 17pts
Returned: 26.27pts
P/L: +9.27pts

Andy Schooler,

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