Chris Hughton's Brighton entertain Claude Puel's Leicester in what promises to be a close encounter. Steve Rawlings has the lowdown ahead of Saturday's match...
“Despite their recent defeats, the Seagulls are still in search of their fourth home win of the season and their third in-a-row and they make more appeal than the visitors. In what can only be described as a tough match to call, Brighton to win in the Draw No Bet market at odds-against looks fair.”
Brighton v Leicester
Saturday 10 November 2018, 15:00
Brighton tough to break on home turf
After three 1-0 wins in-a-row, at home to West Ham, away at Newcastle, and against Wolves back at the Amex Stadium, Brighton are trying to avoid a run of three straight defeats following a 3-1 loss to Everton at Goodison Park and a desperately disappointing 2-1 defeat away at relegation favourites, Cardiff.
The Seagulls took an early lead in South Wales but were always up against it after Dale Stephens saw red in the 34th minute, just six minutes after Cardiff had equalised. Brighton held firm as best they could but there was an air of inevitability about Sol Bamba's 90th minute winner.
Brighton's home and away records are like night and day though. Their victory against the Magpies last month is their sole success in 20 games on the road but they've lost just one of their last eight Premier League ties at home (to Spurs in September) and they lost only four at home all last season - to Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Saturday's opponents, Leicester. They're a hard nut to crack at home and the Amex is where they do the vast majority of their points gathering.
Hard to gauge Leicester back after a welcome break
It's almost impossible to gauge the wellbeing of the Leicester squad on their return to the fray after the international break. Attempting to quantify the effects of the helicopter tragedy on October 27, following their 1-1 draw at home to West Ham, is far from easy and quite frankly, doesn't feel right, but for what it's worth, after a brave 1-0 win at Cardiff and a 0-0 draw at home to Burnley (in their first game back at the King Power following the crash) I suspect they'll have been glad of the break.
At first glance, the stats look good for the Foxes. Their two encounters with the Seagulls last season (their only two in the Premier League to date) ended in 2-0 victories and they've won three of their last five Premier League games on the road but those victories came against a poor Southampton side, a bang out-of-form Newcastle and a badly struggling Cardiff and prior to that run they'd lost eight of their previous 11 away from home. They don't have an especially good recent record at the Amex either, losing three and drawing one of their previous four, prior to last season's success, and they have a few injury and form doubts too...
Having missed the Burnley tie, both Harry McGuire and James Maddison are serious doubts again for Saturday and star striker, Jamie Vardy, hasn't scored since September. Leicester have won just one of their last six Premier League ties (away at Cardiff) and they haven't scored more than once in any game since September.
Stats point to a tight affair but Brighton the value
This is a tough tie to untangle between two sides that will have welcomed the international break for different reasons. Leicester have now played their first game and also their first game at home after the tragedy and they've also had a small amount of time to reflect and move forward. They won't be playing with the intense desire and pressure to perform that they did in those first two fixtures and to a degree, a slightly more relaxed performance can be expected but with the key man, Vardy, misfiring and a couple of serious injury doubts, I'm in no rush to side with them.
Brighton only lost three in-a-row once last term (at home to Liverpool and away to Huddersfield and Spurs) and the break will have come at a great time for them to arrest their mini slide. There's no shame at all in losing at Goodison Park and the Everton manager, Marco Silva, described the Toffees performance as their best at home this season and the Cardiff game could easily be written off, as just one of those days. It's never easy playing the bulk of a Premier League tie with ten men and as already highlighted, Chris Hughton's charges are a very different kettle of fish at home.
Despite their recent defeats, the Seagulls are still in search of their fourth home win of the season and their third in-a-row and they make more appeal than the visitors. In what can only be described as a tough match to call, Brighton to win in the Draw No Bet market at odds-against looks fair.
Don't expect a glut of goals
Brighton have only let in more than two goals once this season (away at Everton) and they've already played away at Liverpool and Manchester City and at home to Manchester United and Spurs. They're particularly stingy at the Amex and Leicester have been far from prolific of late so it's no surprise to see Under 2 ½ Goals trading at odds-on.
Same Game Multi
If you fancy combining two or more scenarios to build a bet that pays a bit more, click on the Same Game Multi tab at the top of the Sportsbook market and pick two or more selections to build a wager. For example, Brighton to win, Under 2 ½ Goals and the ridiculously prolific Glenn Murray to score pays a juicy £12.92 for a £1 stake, but one word of caution, although Murray has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games, he's yet to score against Leicester in seven previous attempts.
Staked: 43 pts
P/L: -4.39 pts
Back Brighton (Draw No Bet) @ [2.2] (2pts)