Brighton v Leicester: Vardy and Foxes' corners your route to success

Jamie Pacheco
22 November 2019

Jamie Vardy gets older but the goals just keep on coming.

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With the winner market a tight one to call, a same-game multi featuring Jamie Vardy and corner kicks are the way to go, says Jamie Pacheco.

"If there’s one thing you can bank in when it comes to the Foxes it’s that they get plenty of corners. Or at least more than their opponents."

Brighton quietly going about their business

Brighton have slipped under the radar somewhat this season which suits them just fine, quietly going about their business to find themselves in a much better position than in previous years.

11th place is a fine effort for a side who continues to not splash out in the transfer market compared to other teams and who has done extremely well just to avoid relegation for the past two years.

Having said that, as ever their Achilles' heel is scoring goals. Of those sides above them in the table only Sheffield United (13) have scored less than their 15.

Aaron Connolly misses out through injury but a far more serious absence is that of suspended centre-back Lewis Dunk, who had played every minute of the campaign so far and contributed with a goal and an assist in addition to his fine defensive displays.

Foxes not cracking under pressure so far

As I argued a few weeks ago, there's no reason at all why Leicester can't be targeting a Top four finish.

Top three isn't out of the equation, either. They have the manager, the players and the points on the board to book a Champions League spot and the fact that they've been fortunate with suspensions (or lack of them) and injuries has made Brendan Rogers'task considerably easier.

Brendan Rodgers claps 1280.jpg

It's hard to single out individuals because it has been a team effort but Jamie Vardy is the leading scorer in the league, James Maddison is looking a real top-class player, while anyone in defence from Ricardo Pereira to Caglar Soyuncu has not only defended well but contributed at the other end of the pitch, too.

It's Brighton who are the value

It's been a while since Leicester have been this sort of price (2.111/10) to win an away game against a decent side but the penny has finally dropped as to what a dangerous side they are.

The stats suggest this won't be straightforward, though. They've won just once in Brighton in their last six attempts and are up against a side who has enjoyed home comforts of late, winning all of their last four in front of their fans.

With that in mind and Brighton having less players on international duty over the past couple of weeks, you could argue that it's 3.9 Brighton who are the value. The draw is 3.711/4.

Stats say this could be low-scoring

Given 67% of Brighton's home games and 50% of Leicester's away ones have gone under 2.5 goals, you could make a case for 'unders' being the better here in what is a pick'em affair with overs and unders impossible to split in terms of odds.

Four of the last five played in Brighton between these two has gone 'unders', adding further fuel to the argument but it's not quite enough to take the lunge on two or fewer goals.

Vardy on the money, Leicester on the corners

If ever you could make a case for a player to score at evens, it would be Jamie Vardy to score here.

He's the top scorer in the league with 11 goals and he's scored in each of his last four league games. Better still, he netted six times in those matches. And in the last four against Brighton, he's scored three times. Can we do better than just backing Vardy to score at evens? Let's try.

If there's one thing you can bank in when it comes to the Foxes it's that they get plenty of corners. Or at least more than their opponents. Both at home and away they're five from six (83%) in terms of getting more corners than the opposition and that away record includes 'out-cornering' both Manchester United and Liverpool.

Brighton, in turn, are three from six at home in terms of getting more corners and though the odds pretty much reflect those records, 4/6 is still an acceptable price on Leicester. Lump that together with a Jamie Vardy goal and you get chunky odds of 3.95.

For more tips and insight on the weekend football, check out the latest episode of Football...Only Bettor

JAMIE'S 2019/20 PREMIER LEAGUE P/L

Points Staked: 20.5
Points Returned: 27.4
P&L: +6.9 pts

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