Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea: Potter's Seagulls look dangerous at bigger odds

Graham Potter
Graham Potter's Brighton are looking to follow up Saturday's 2-0 win over Bournemouth

Chelsea's grip on fourth place was tightened by a 2-1 win against Arsenal, but Alan Dudman is backing Brighton to turn over Frank Lampard's team...

"Brighton have won four of their last seven PL home matches - as many as they had in their previous 18 at the Amex."

Back Brighton to beat Chelsea @ 4.03/1

Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea
Wednesday 1 January, kick off 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Can the Seagulls kick on in the new year?

The template for virtually every Brighton performance now seems to be of a team that plays well, has lots of the ball, yet struggles to break an opponent down in the final third.

So it was good to see the Seagulls gaining some points for some of the good play lately, as they triumphed 2-0 against Bournemouth on Saturday. It was a very comfortable 2-0, although they never really killed the game off until Aaron Mooy's goal in the second half. Mooy starred in a man-of-the-match performance. His goal was deserved, and while he lacks a little pace, he exploited the gaps left by the Cherries well. He was almost a No.10, although Brighton were set up in a 4-4-2.

Saturday's victory took them to 23 points from 20 games. And perhaps more importantly, they beat one of their relegation rivals. Bournemouth now trade at 3.711/4 in the Relegation market, while Brighton are out to 13.5.

Blues still struggling for consistency

Chelsea's dramatic late win at Arsenal on Sunday really summed up their season. Yes, they are at times good to watch, and that win took them to fourth in the Premier League, but they are very inconsistent. In fact, it's been that kind of season with some of the big teams getting beat at short odds. Chelsea have performed this role a couple of times.

Blues' manager Frank Lampard was scathing in his assessment of his team's first 30 minutes against the Gunners, describing it as an awful start. His defensive three were pushed back so deep they virtually became a five. Lampard's intervention of swapping Emerson for Jorginho worked well, and his introduction allowed Chelsea to play further up the pitch.

frank lampard 1280x720.jpg

The Arsenal win was their seventh away victory, compared to just four at Stamford Bridge. Sides are going to west London to defend and Chelsea have struggled to break their opponents down. Their Boxing Day 0-2 loss to Southampton saw them record just 10 shots - their fewest in the Premier League under Lampard.

Hosts worth backing to cause an upset

Backing Chelsea here as 2.021/1 favourites just doesn't excite me. While they are a better team away from home, their rather up-and-down nature means we should steer clear of them.

It's also slightly worrying that a lack of energy and lethargy were two things cited as the problem behind the awful 35 minutes versus Arsenal. They also missed that energetic spark against the Saints on Boxing Day - and that 2-0 loss was the first time they had suffered consecutive home defeats since 2011.

I think the layers might be out to get Chelsea here, and I wouldn't be surprised if their price was to drift out to around 2.1011/10.

This could be the sort of game Brighton can put it all together. I backed them to get a result at Spurs on Boxing Day, and guess what, it was a performance where they had a fair bit of the ball but couldn't create enough. There's a common theme.

However, Jose Mourinho mentioned they were very strong tactically and a huge threat from set-pieces. That could be an area Brighton find some joy in this fixture.

If we can get around the 4.03/1 or 3.953/1 for the hosts, I am happy to play that outright rather than include the Draw No Bet.

Brighton have won four of their last seven PL home matches - as many as they had in their previous 18 at the Amex. So Potter is certainly doing something right. And with Chelsea's lack of energy recently in first half performances, an early goal for Potter's men could set up a nice trade early to lay back your stake and secure a green book In-Play.

More changes from Potter?

Potter made seven changes for the 2-0 win against Bournemouth, so it's a difficult task in second guessing his line up for this. Whether Alireza Jahanbakhsh begins again is one to ponder, as he netted his first goal for 1,552 minutes against Eddie Howe's side. He is a massive 5.69/2 in the To Score market.

But he might not start.

I was very impressed with the dynamism of Yves Bissouma on Saturday too, that was only his ninth game and his drive from midfield added a little bit more to a team that have plenty of possession.

Tammy Abraham is enjoying an excellent season, and the majority of his goals have come on the road with eight. He is unsurprisingly one of the favourites in that particular market at 2.01/1.

Alan Dudman's Premier League P&L

2019/20: -8.12

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