Brighton v Cardiff: Few goals in nervy game
Dan Fitch is expecting a tight match when Brighton and Cardiff meet in this relegation six-pointer.
"Chris Hughton’s side have lost their last four games without scoring a goal."
Brighton [2.04] v Cardiff [4.6]; The Draw [3.4]
Tuesday 16 April, 19:45
Seagulls' home form has flown
Brighton's woeful form continued at the weekend, putting them under even more pressure as they go into this relegation dogfight.
Chris Hughton's side have lost their last four games without scoring a goal. With tough fixtures against the likes of Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester City to come, Brighton are in very real danger of being relegated if they don't start to pick up points in their more winnable games.
Since winning promotion to the Premier League, Brighton's home form has been good enough to ensure their safety, but they have only won one of their last six matches at the Amex and that was against rock bottom Huddersfield (D1 L4). On Saturday they were thrashed 5-0 by a Bournemouth team that have been struggling for form themselves. The dismissal of Anthony Knockaert certainly helped Bournemouth to rack up such a big win, yet they were already 2-0 up when the French winger was sent off.
Knockeart now serves a three match ban that will keep him out of this crucial encounter. Other players that could be unavailable to Hughton include the injured Pascal Gross and Solly March.
Must win match for Cardiff
This is a game that Cardiff simply cannot afford to lose if they are to stand a chance of survival.
A defeat to Brighton will see the south coast side gain an eight point lead, which would likely prove be very difficult to overturn with just four games remaining. Even a draw that would keep the distance at five points, would leave Cardiff with a lot to do, with games against Liverpool and Manchester United looming.
At least then there is no ambiguity regarding Cardiff's task and though their own form has been poor, they continue to display a fighting spirit that often deserts teams in such trouble. Cardiff have only won one of their last seven games (L6), but they have not been disgraced in their more recent encounters and came agonisingly close to beating Chelsea.
Neil Warnock has no fresh injuries to concern himself with, after the weekend defeat to Burnley. Long term casualties Sol Bamba, Matthew Connolly, Callum Paterson and Alex Smithies all remain on the sidelines.
Value lies with visitors
Brighton are the [2.04] favourites, with the draw at [3.4] and Cardiff at [4.6].
Both sides are playing poorly and Brighton's home advantage counts for little given their current form. In such instances when it's difficult to separate two teams, you would expect them to be much closer in price than is the case here.
The value is clearly with Cardiff and their odds are big enough that they are available at [1.93] to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market.
Low scoring game seems likely
Brighton may have conceded five against Bournemouth, but Cardiff do not carry nearly so much of an attacking threat, so we should expect a low scoring game.
With Brighton not scoring in their last four games and Cardiff failing to find the net in their last two, under 2.5 goals looks overpriced at [1.66]. Under 1.5 goals is another bet to consider at [2.94].
Dan Fitch 2018/19 Season P/L
Staked: 276.00 pts
Returned: 290.83 pts
P/L: +14.83 pts
Back Cardiff double chance against Brighton at [1.93]
Back under 2.5 goals between Brighton and Cardiff at [1.66]