Overs or Unders: Burnley and Liverpool to trade Boxing Day blows

Super Mario: Bad Boy Balotelli's back in the Liverpool squad
Raheem Sterling could enjoy himself at Turf Moor today

Neil Harvey's here with four Over/Under 2.5 Goals recommendations from today's Premier League programme...

"The fact that City are bereft of fit strikers didn't hold them back last week, as the pressure built from midfield, resulting in three second half goals against Crystal Palace."

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9010/11

Burnley v Liverpool  15:00   

An extremely thirsty Brendan Rogers will be drinking at the last chance saloon here, as he takes his Liverpool side to Lancashire in dire need of a convincing win. The signs and reports in the last couple of weeks have been that Liverpool are finally getting their act together and have found the formation and line-up to get the best out of their squad. Whether that's true, we should find out on Friday afternoon.

What we don't need any confirmation of though, is that when the Reds play on the road, there are almost always goals. Of Liverpool's last 26 Premier League away games, 23 had three goals or more. There's not really any more we need to know. But the fact that Rogers' side are desperate to put on a good show can only help.

The fact that Burnley have scored in their last six straight league games at Turf Moor only adds to the goalscoring mix. The Clarets also need a result to aid their survival bid and should have the confidence to go for it, against what has been an ailing Liverpool of late.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.814/5

West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City   15:00 

Manchester City are going to take this title race to the wire. Nobody can convince me otherwise on this. And I don't see West Brom being able to stand in their way. City have scored 21 goals in nine league away games - the most in the division. West Brom have conceded 13 times in nine games at the Hawthorns - giving them the joint worst home record in the Premier League.

The fact that City are bereft of fit strikers didn't hold them back last week, as the pressure built from midfield, resulting in three second half goals against Crystal Palace. And the Baggies, who've conceded at least two goals to six of the nine teams they've hosted, have shown nothing this season to suggest they can withstand City's attacking talents. West Brom's only hope would seem to lie in fighting fire with fire. Alan Irvine's side are, after all, scoring more than a goal a game themselves at home on average, which has resulted in the majority of those matches being high-scoring.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9010/11

Crystal Palace v Southampton   15:00

Exactly half of Crystal Palace's home games have been low-scoring, i.e. contained two goals or less. Meanwhile Southampton's away games have been even less exciting, with 75 percent of them short on goals. And that includes their last five matches in a row, which yielded a miserable six goals between them. For whatever reason, the brakes have been applied to the Saints' forward play. Consequently, we see the goals drying up, and Southampton slipping down the table.

The fact that Ronald Koeman's side have failed to score in their last two away games, including at Burnley last time, must be a concern for him. And things will get no easier at Palace, who have been proving harder to open-up than a Christmas walnut of late. Both these team are more adept at defending than they are at attacking. Indeed, neither team has managed to score more than a solitary goal in any of their last five league matches - a run I don't expect to end here.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.654/6

Swansea City v Aston Villa   15:00

Swansea and Aston Villa find themselves being drawn together from opposite ends of the Premier League standings, seemingly destined to end the season locked in mid-table oblivion, with both sides being pulled there by their lack of goals. More than half of Swansea's home game have been low-scoring at the Liberty Stadium, while Aston Villa have produced six low-scoring games from eight on the road, including their last five in a row.

Swansea have been been tough to break down at home, conceding just seven goals in nine matches. So it's hard to imagine Garry Monk's side suddenly crumbling in the face of a Villa team that's netted just four goals on the road. Paul Lambert's side are proving similarly stubborn though. Given a goals record of 4-10 away from home, it's incredible to think Villa have taken points from more than half those matches, showing just how defiant they can be. So I'm expect a scrappy, spoiled encounter here, with two goals at the most.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.784/5

2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 62.57pts
P/L: +2.57

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