Bournemouth v Liverpool: Reds' attack to pick off The Cherries

Daniel Sturridge will be keen to impress both Klopp and Hodgson
Daniel Sturridge will be keen to impress both Klopp and Hodgson

It's a trip down to the South Coast for Liverpool following their epic victory over Borussia Dortmund and Paul Robinson thinks that their success can continue at Bournemouth's expense.

"If we look at the stats alone, Bournemouth’s matches this year are averaging 2.88 goals each time – a total only bettered by four teams – and that has led to 18 of their 33 fixtures seeing over 2.5 backers paid out."

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0421/20

Bournemouth v Liverpool
Sunday April 17, 13:30 BST


Bournemouth

If you would have told Eddie Howe at the start of the season that his team would be in 11th place with only five games to go I am sure he would have snapped your hand off. The Cherries have won 11 times this term, which is two more than Everton and the same as Chelsea. They have already reached the 40 point barrier and they can look forward to next year.

The Cherries bounced back from a couple of heavy defeats to nil against Spurs and Man City by beating lowly Aston Villa last weekend, but they will need to be at their best to compete with Liverpool. The players can look back to their victory over Manchester United on this ground and they have also won two of their last three here - beating both Southampton and Swansea.

As for the team news, Howe will again be without the services of Harry Arter, while Adam Smith is also sidelined. Callum Wilson returned from long-term injury last weekend so he could get a few more minutes from the bench but Tyrone Mings and Benik Afobe are still unavailable.


Liverpool

The Reds return to domestic action having been involved in one of the great games in recent memory on Thursday night as they twice came from two goals behind to beat Borussia Dortmund 4-3 in front of The Kop. It will be hard for the players to be as up for a trip to The Vitality Stadium but the mood around the camp couldn't be better.

Jurgen Klopp isn't the kind of manager to let the intensity levels drop and he will want to make sure that his team finish as high up the table as possible. They are only five points behind Manchester United in fifth, with a game in hand, so getting into that top five and securing a place in next year's Europa League has to be the domestic goal - even if they don't need it in the end thanks to a potential Europa League victory in May.

Since blowing a 2-0 lead at St Mary's back in March, Liverpool have played well in a 1-1 draw against title-chasing Tottenham, and they then thrashed Stoke 4-1 last weekend. Klopp rotated his team for that fixture and I expect his to field a similar XI for this game.


Match Odds
Bournemouth 3.711/4 Liverpool 2.186/5 The Draw 3.613/5

I can't not back the visitors at above evens as despite the negatives of having been involved in such a pulsating match on Thursday, the good feeling can compensate for that. A lot of the players involved on that day will not start on Sunday anyway and the replacements showed what they can do against Stoke.

The hosts will be no pushovers but they have been beaten seven times in front of their own fans this term and three of those defeats came from their five most recent outings.

Conversely, Liverpool have won four of seven on the road and under Klopp they have taken maximum points from trips to Stamford Bridge, The Etihad, The Stadium of Light, Carrow Road, Villa Park and Selhurst Park.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.0421/20 Under 2.5 Goals 1.9420/21

This is a market that surprises me as I would have imagined that over 2.5 goals would have been the favourite. If we look at the stats alone, Bournemouth's matches this year are averaging 2.88 goals each time - a total only bettered by four teams - and that has led to 18 of their 33 fixtures seeing over 2.5 backers paid out.

One of those teams who can better 2.88 is Liverpool as their games are averaging 2.97 goals per 90 minutes - the joint highest total in the Premier League. While only 16 of their 31 have ended with three or more scored, seven of them have come in their nine most recent matches - including four of their last five on their travels.

If we add in Bournemouth's last 10 home scorelines of 3-3, 2-1, 0-0, 1-3, 3-0, 0-2, 1-3, 2-0, 3-2 and 0-4, we have a recipe for a high-scoring affair.


Cash Out

This week's cash-out opportunity takes us back to the correct score market as a 1-3 scoreline is currently trading at around the 20.019/1 mark, That screams value to me and as I think that there will definitely be goals in the game, the price should contract in size at some point - hopefully to below the even money mark.


Recommended Bets
Back Liverpool @ 2.186/5
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0421/20


Best Cash Out
Back a 1-3 Correct Score @ 20.019/1

Click here to check out more of Betting.Betfair's Premier League coverage

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles