Bournemouth: The underestimated side effect of the Cherries' slump

Michael Lintorn
11 November 2015

Eddie Howe has seen his attacking options restricted by long-term injuries

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Punters are increasingly buying into the idea of Bournemouth going down, but they are underrated in another market...

"Three successive zeroes against Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle (who conceded nine goals over their two previous away encounters) hint at serious issues."

Recommended Bet: Back Bournemouth to be team to score least goals @ 11.010/1

Bournemouth have struggled since the end of September as the list of long-term injuries to some of their most important players became too much to manage but, until last weekend's home defeat to Newcastle, they had resisted the drop to odds-on in the Premier League relegation market.

That result, their fifth loss in a row across all competitions, saw them slide beneath the Magpies into the bottom three for the first time since mid-August. As a consequence, they are now 1.9210/11 to make an immediate return to the Championship, having once traded at 5.8.

However, while the reality of the situation has impacted on their positional pricing, the goal-related markets haven't yet reacted to their changing circumstances, meaning that it is possible to back the Cherries to be the lowest-scoring Premier League team at enticing odds of around 11.010/1.

Their season so far can easily be split into three parts: the timid opening in which they fired blanks against Aston Villa and Liverpool, the Callum Wilson boom in which the forward scored five times as they notched eight in four games and then the dramatic decline since his injury.

The south coast side have struck just four times across seven matches in all competitions since their main attacking threat was stretchered off after 17 minutes at Stoke with a knee injury expected to rule him out until April at the earliest, and their net-rippling predicament is worsening weekly.

Whereas they could at least point to one goal per fixture past the Potters, Watford, Manchester City and Tottenham as consistent if not prolific, three successive zeroes against Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle (who conceded nine goals over their two previous away encounters) hint at serious issues.

Wilson and Max Gradel are both due to miss another five months of action or more, so there isn't a quick fix for the problem before the January transfer window, in which the percentage of signings who are undisputed successes is notoriously low.

Bournemouth are already near the bottom of the goals table, a mere two clear of joint-last trio Aston Villa, Stoke and West Brom, and presently find themselves being outgunned by each of them, so it won't be long before they have slumped to the very foot.

Recommended Bet: Back Bournemouth to be team to score least goals @ 11.010/1

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