Bournemouth v West Ham: Bubbles to squeak home on Boxing Day

Forever blowing bubbles
Forever blowing bubbles

Saturday defeats for both Bournemouth and West Ham make this fixture even more crucial and Paul Robinson is expecting the visitors to edge it...

"The hosts have won just one of their last six in front of their own fans – losing three times and drawing the other two."

Back West Ham @ 2.89/5

Bournemouth v West Ham
Tuesday 26 December, 15:00 GMT


Crunch Time For The Cherries

There was another defeat for Bournemouth on Saturday and while a loss at Manchester City is hardly something to worry about, the fact that it was their third on the bounce and their 11th of the season has to be a huge concern.

The Cherries have dropped into the relegation zone and their two latest defeats were both by four goals to nil. Eddie Howe isn't helped by the list of players that he doesn't have available to him, with Junior Stanislas being the latest following his early departure at The Etihad.

This is the first of two back to back home games for Bournemouth, and with a trip to Brighton on New Years Day, this trio of matches could well shape the rest of their campaign.


A Bad Week for The Hammers

Things were looking great for West Ham just one short week ago but they have since been knocked out of the EFL Cup by Arsenal and then most disappointingly, lost 3-2 at home to Newcastle on Saturday.

David Moyes rightly pointed out that it was a crazy game with defensive errors at both ends, and given the type of manager he is, I expect his players to be much better for their trip to the South Coast.

Marko Arnautović is the man in form for The Hammers and the £20m summer signing opened the scoring against Newcastle - which was his third goal in five appearances. He will be the main creative outlet once again for West Ham as Manuel Lanzini is still suspended.


Moyes To Get The Better Of Howe

The Match Odds Market is exceptionally tight for this fixture as a home win is 2.915/8, the away win 2.89/5 and the draw is trading at the [3.35} mark.

The hosts have won just one of their last six in front of their own fans - losing three times and drawing the other two. They have had a couple of tough opponents during that run but they should really have picked up more victories than that.

Overall this year their record is won two, drawn two and lost five of their games at The Vitality, so it's not even like their backers can point to a decent overall record at home this term.

The main problem for people like me who want to put some money on West Ham is that they have won just one of their 10 on the road this season.

It is worth pointing out however that the victory was in their last league match away from The London Stadium, and they did it convincingly - 3-0 at Stoke.

David Moyes did lose his other three away games as The Hammers' boss, but they have gradually been improving under his stewardship and I'm willing to put their performance against Newcastle to one side.

I am half tempted by the draw given that it is the biggest price, but overall I think that West Ham can get the job done here and 2.89/5 is decent enough.


A Good Game To Be a Goalscorer

The Betfair Layers are slightly favouring the Under when it comes to Over/Under 2.5 Goals. It's currently priced at 1.814/5 with the Over available to back at 2.1411/10.

There are strong arguments to be made for both sides of this coin as three of Bournemouth's last four at home have had three goals or more and the same can be said for four of West Ham's last five away outings.

That can be a touch misleading when it comes to the chances of goals in this match however as aside from the four they put past Huddersfield in November, The Cherries have netted just two in five in front of their own fans. And while Moyes' men scored three at Stoke last time, prior to that they had scored just four in seven on the road.

Given how much a victory would mean to both teams, I'm going to plump for the bigger odds and go with Over 2.5. A draw isn't exactly an ideal result for either side, and that should hopefully lead to an attacking affair.

Talking of goals, if you believe in history repeating itself then this Opta Stat is one to keep an eye on - Michail Antonio scored in both fixtures against Bournemouth last season - to date the only Premier League side he's scored home and away against in the same campaign.

He is currently trading at around the 7.06/1 mark to open the scoring on Tuesday.


Ref Watch

The man in the middle this Boxing Day is Stuart Attwell and the one and only red card he has shown this season was to a West Ham player - Andy Carroll against Burnley, back in October.

Other than that it's been yellows only for Attwell and he's even failed to produce a card in two of his 13 games this year. Generally though his card count has increased as the season has worn on - showing five or more cards in four of his last seven appearances.

***


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2017/18 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 39pts
Returned: 48.28pts
P/L: +9.28pts

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