It's a south coast derby with plenty at stake when Bournemouth host Southampton and Dan Fitch is more confident in predicting goals than he is the result.
"The striker has scored eleven away goals this season."
Bournemouth [2.46] v Southampton [2.92]; The Draw [3.8]
Sunday 19 July, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Cherries belatedly find some fight
Bournemouth simply have to beat Southampton on Sunday, as Eddie Howe's team battle against relegation.
With two games to go, Bournemouth are 18th with 31 points. Two wins would see them finish with 37 points, which if they're lucky, could just be enough to see them survive.
Over the last few games, Bournemouth have woken up and started playing at a level that suggests that they will fight till the end. They were unlucky not to beat Spurs in a match that finished 0-0 and then thrashed Leicester 4-1 at home. In midweek, Bournemouth came close to taking something in a 2-1 defeat away at Manchester City, that will have only boosted their confidence.
As has been the case for most of the season, Howe is without several players for this crunch match and they're all defenders. Adam Smith could return, but Nathan Ake, Charlie Daniels, Simon Francis and Chris Mepham all look likely to miss out.
Saints end season on a high
Though comfortably mid-table, Southampton are also showing plenty of fight as the season nears completion.
On Thursday, the Saints came from behind to force a draw for the second game in a row. A Danny Ings goal rescued a point at home to Brighton, just days after Michael Obafemi's injury time equaliser against Manchester United saw Southampton leave Old Trafford with a 2-2 draw.
Unbeaten in five (W2 D3), it's been a strange season for Southampton. When they were beaten 9-0 at home by Leicester back in October, it was impossible to imagine that they would improve so much as the campaign went on. Credit should go to the Southampton board, who resisted the urge to panic and replace Ralph Hasenhuttl.
Southampton have a slim squad at the best of times and Hasenhuttl is doing well to deal with the club's injury problems and still achieve consistency. Valery Yann, Moussa Djenepo, Sofiane Boufal and Nathan Tella are all out.
Argument to make for either side
Bournemouth are the [2.46] favourites, with Southampton at [2.92] and the draw at [3.8].
It's a difficult one to predict. Bournemouth have the greater motivation and should be fresher having played their last game a day earlier that Southampton. Yet the Saints are showing no signs of slowing down, have an excellent away record and will be looking to take advantage of Bournemouth's selection issues in defence.
There could be value in backing Southampton cautiously at [2.1] in the Draw No Bet market, but overall it might be best to focus on the likelihood of the goals flowing.
Ings will score in lively game
Both teams to score looks certain to land at [1.63]. It's a slim price, but it's paid out in each of Southampton's last three games and Bournemouth have to be bold.
At a slightly bigger price is over 2.5 goals at [1.74]. Again, Bournemouth's need for points, combined with Southampton's cutting edge, suggests that this one will be a winner.
Ings has been providing that finishing touch for Southampton and has a superb away record. The striker has scored 11 away goals this season and remains in the Golden Boot hunt. The former Liverpool man is [2.1] to add to his tally.
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 784.00 pts
Returned: 777.41 pts
P/L: -6.59 pts
Back over 2.5 goals between Bournemouth and Southampton at [1.74]
Back Ings to score for Southampton against Bournemouth at [2.1]