Bournemouth v Southampton: South-coast rivals could cancel each other out

Jack Lang
02 December 2017

Mauricio Pellegrino's Southampton side were unlucky to lose at Manchester City

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Jack Lang isn't expecting fireworks in this Sunday lunchtime clash...

"Bournemouth's home form has been underwhelming: they've lost four of seven Premier League games at Dean Court this term, with the only wins coming against newly-promoteds sides"

Bournemouth v Southampton
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Cherries looking for a reaction

After an unbeaten mini-run of three matches, Bournemouth were brought back down to earth by Burnley in the midweek round. The Cherries gave themselves a mountain to climb on Eddie Howe's 40th birthday, falling two goals behind with 65 minutes played, and could not manage to claw their visitors back despite a late siege of Nick Pope's goal.

Howe later admitted that his side had simply not turned up against his old employers. "We were off it," the Bournemouth boss said. "We never got our passing game going. We were just flat and barely got going." That was a frank admission and you can be sure he will be expecting a reaction when south-coast neighbours Southampton make the short trip to Dean Court on Sunday afternoon.

Howe only made one change his XI in midweek and may be tempted to freshen things up for this game, their third in eight days. Lewis Cook, Ryan Fraser, Jermain Defoe are the players most likely to force their way in, although this is probably not the time to get too experimental: despite their encouraging form prior to Wednesday night, Bournemouth are just four points above the dropzone.

Saints so unlucky at the Etihad

So close, yet to far. Southampton came within a few seconds of holding Manchester City on Wednesday night, putting in a performance of real grit to frustrate the runaway league leaders for 95 minutes. Then along came Raheem Sterling, curling the ball beyond Fraser Forster, to send the Saints back home empty-handed. Tough game, football.

Still, Mauricio Pellegrino should take plenty of heart from his side's display. Southampton actually created enough chances - most of them from dead balls, admittedly - to score three of four goals, as they did against Everton last Sunday. It has been a middling season so far but there are signs that this is a side ready to kick on over the festive period.

Pellegrino picked a defensive side for the trip to the Etihad, playing five across the back, and leaving Shane Long and Nathan Redmond to sniff out counter-attacking possibilities further forward. The approach should be less circumspect here, meaning the likes of Dusan Tadic and Sofiane Boufal may be in contention for recalls.

Value with the draw

Bournemouth's home form has been underwhelming: they've lost four of seven Premier League games at Dean Court this term, with the only wins coming against newly-promoted Brighton and Huddersfield. They lost this fixture 3-1 last season and we won't be siding with them at 2.962/1.

Saints aren't hugely tempting at 2.727/4 either, having won away just once so far this term, against struggling Crystal Palace. The last couple of games will have given them some confidence, but they remain inconsistent and, despite the blowout against Everton, have not been convincing in attack. In the outright markets, the draw looks the pick at 3.39/4.

Goals could be at a premium

Since the start of April, Southampton have scored only 22 goals in their 25 matches in the Premier League. With Bournemouth having tightened up at the back recently - four clean sheets in eight - it could be tough going for Pellegrino's men. But the same is true for the Cherries, who have just 12 goals to their name. This could be a slow-burn affair, with both sides cautious after midweek losses, so the unders is the preference at 1.695/7.

A better bet, though, could be the 0-0 half-time score at 2.77/4, with weary legs possibly contributing to a slow start. Four of Bournemouth's seven home games have been goalless at the break, as have two Saints away games.

Wilson the pick for Bournemouth

Neither of these sides has an especially reliable goalscorer, but the best pick is probably Callum Wilson at 3.1511/5 to notch anytime. The Cherries striker hit a superb hat-trick against Huddersfield a fortnight ago, and while he failed to hit the target against Burnley, he did play a key role in Joshua King's goal.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw at 3.39/4
Back 0-0 half-time score at 2.77/4