Bournemouth v Newcastle: Magpies will choke at Cherries

Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe.
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Dan Fitch thinks that a rejuvenated Bournemouth side will have too much for Newcastle to handle.

"Newcastle have not won any of their last six matches away from home (D2 L4). Bournemouth have only lost one of their last four home games (W2 D1) and that was a narrow defeat to Manchester City."

Back Bournemouth to beat Newcastle at [2.12]

Bournemouth [2.12] v Newcastle [3.9]; The Draw [3.6]
Saturday 16 March, 15:00

Cherries get pick of fixtures

After a tough run of games, Bournemouth have a kinder fixture list to look forward to, as the season draws to a conclusion.

Last weekend they beat Huddersfield away from home, which was their first win in five matches (D1 L4), with the four most recent games, all coming against teams that are currently in the top seven of the Premier League.

Of Bournemouth's next eight opponents, only two are in the top half of the table. It's an excellent opportunity for the Cherries to finish the season on a high, particularly as David Brooks and Callum Wilson have recently returned from injury.

A lengthy injury list has been one of the chief reasons that Bournemouth's bright start to the season gave way to a decline. Lewis Cook, Steve Cook, Simon Francis, Junior Stanislas and Adam Smith are all currently injured.

Magpies flying at home, yet remain grounded away

Newcastle have made great progress of late, but there is still plenty of room for improvement when it comes to their away form.

The Magpies have won their last five matches at St James' Park, which has seen them move up to thirteenth in the Premier League, just three points behind Bournemouth. When you consider the quality of the squad that Rafa Benitez has to work with, such a run is a testament to his abilities as a manager, for in other hands they would be heading towards relegation.

Benitez has yet to crack the problem of Newcastle's away record though. They have won only two away games all season, with only Huddersfield and Fulham having less victories on the road.

Ciaran Clark, Rob Elliot and Sean Longstaff are all definitely out for the trip to Bournemouth with injuries, while Jamaal Lascelles is a doubt. Also unavailable is Fabian Schar, who serves the first of a two match ban.

Three points for Bournemouth

Bournemouth are the [2.12] favourites, with the draw at [3.6] and Newcastle out at [3.9].

Newcastle have not won any of their last six matches away from home (D2 L4). Bournemouth have only lost one of their last four home games (W2 D1) and that was a narrow defeat to Manchester City.

Odds of [2.12] for a Bournemouth win could prove to be generous. The return of Wilson makes them a much more potent team, with the England striker's relationship with Ryan Fraser standing out in the 2-0 win at Huddersfield, as both players made goals for each other.

Goals should flow

Bournemouth's clean sheet against Huddersfield was their first in five matches. With Newcastle scoring in all but one of their last five games, both teams to score could land at [1.81].

This is particularly true given the fact that both teams are missing key defensive personnel. Over 2.5 goals is worth considering at [2.08].

Wilson can continue scoring streak

Wilson is the [2.6] favourite to score. He's scored eleven Premier League goals this season and has found the net in each of his last three appearances.

For Newcastle, Salomon Rondon leads the betting at [3.3]. He was on target against Everton last weekend and now has eight Premier League goals in 24 matches for the Magpies, which includes both the goals in Newcastle's 2-1 win over Bournemouth in the reverse fixture.

Dan Fitch 2018/19 Season P/L

Staked: 276.00 pts
Returned: 290.83 pts
P/L: +14.83 pts

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