Bournemouth v Leicester: Suspect defences likely to leak goals

Leicester striker Jamie Vardy
Leicester striker Jamie Vardy returns from a three-match suspension
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Andrew Atherley expects a high-scoring match at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday...

"Bournemouth have had 14 out of 21 (67%) over 2.5 goals at home since the start of last season and Leicester have had 13 out of 16 (81%) over 2.5 goals on the road under Puel."
Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 goals at [1.91]

Bournemouth v Leicester
Saturday 15 September, 15:00

Comeback kings

Bournemouth's only defeat in their opening four games came last time 2-0 away to Chelsea, and before that they had scored two goals in each match in beating Cardiff and West Ham and drawing with Everton.

Eddie Howe's side have already restated one of their key attributes in coming from a goal down to win at West Ham and from two down to grab a point at home to Everton. That puts them top of the 'points after falling behind' table, which they led last season with 21 points.

In the overall table, the Cherries are in sixth place with seven points as they resume after the international break.

Howe is likely to revert to 4-4-2 and that should mean a return to the starting line-up for summer signing David Brooks.

Young stars impress

Claude Puel was one of the leading pre-season fancies to be the first manager to leave his post, despite a pair of top-ten finishes and a cup final appearance in his two seasons in English football, but his odds have drifted to [9.8] after a good start to the campaign.

With £24m midfielder James Maddison and new England cap Ben Chilwell among the young players to impress, Leicester have beaten Wolves and Southampton and lost only to big-six teams Manchester United and Liverpool. That puts them in eighth place on six points.

The Foxes are boosted by the return of Jamie Vardy from suspension.

High concession rates

Bournemouth have a tendency to concede at home and their only wins at the Vitality Stadium since the start of February have come against last season's three relegated teams and this season's favourites for the drop, Cardiff.

Their last home win against a team not in that group, was 2-1 against Arsenal on January 14 and their results in that category since then have been W0 D3 L2.

Overall their record at home to teams outside the bottom eight last season was W2 D3 L6, which makes them a risky win bet against a side like Leicester who are odds-on for a top-10 finish.

Leicester had a goalless draw in this fixture early last season when Craig Shakespeare was still in charge but they have some questions to answer on the road after losing seven of their last 10 away games last season from Christmas onwards.

They have started better this season with a good showing at Old Trafford in a 2-1 defeat and then a win at Southampton by the same score.

One problem is that they usually concede on the road, with just two clean sheets in 16 away games under Puel.

Goals look likely

Both teams to score looks a good bet at [1.73] given Leicester's high concession rate under Puel and Bournemouth's low number of clean sheets at home (joint-lowest with Stoke in the Premier League last season).

It is not much of a stretch to see over 2.5 goals at [1.91] and that looks the best bet. Bournemouth have had 14 out of 21 (67%) over 2.5 goals at home since the start of last season and Leicester have had 13 out of 16 (81%) over 2.5 goals on the road under Puel.

Opta Stat

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their six Premier League meetings with Leicester, though five of these have ended level (W1 D5 L0). They've not faced any other side more often without defeat in the competition than the Foxes (also six vs Swansea). The draw can be backed at [3.5].

Premier League 2018-19 P/L

Staked: 3pts
Return: 1pt
P/L: -2pts

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