Bournemouth v Huddersfield: Cherries a good pick to score from the spot
In a tough match to call between two out-of-form sides, the best bet may be that Bournemouth score from a penalty once again, says Jamie Pacheco.
"If you want a decent bet on an ‘off-the-beaten track’ market, you can consider Bournemouth to score from a penalty. In 14 games this season, they’ve scored from a penalty in five of them, so just better than one in every three."
Bournemouth v Huddersfield
Tuesday December 04, 19:45
Cherries really could do with winning this
Bournemouth certainly didn't disgrace themselves away at Manchester City at the weekend. They may have lost 3-1 but they scored, went in level at the break to ruin plenty of Man City/Man City selections on the half time/full time market and had a couple of other chances to get a goal. Either way, it's certainly not trips to Manchester City that are going to make or break their season. A match like this, however, is just the sort that they would have penciled in at the start of the season as one where they'd expect to get three points from. Mind you, they're not in good form right now.
And a win here would certainly make a huge difference. It could potentially see them move up two places to seventh, which would certainly be viewed as an extremely positive start to the season.
Only defender Adam Smith is unavailable with injury.
Terries need to bounce back quickly
It's not getting any easier for Huddersfield. A surprise 2-0 win at Wolves last Monday was a huge fillip to their survival chances but a 2-1 home defeat to Brighton will have been seen as a very disappointing result. Then again, it obviously didn't help that they had Steve Mounie sent off on the hour mark. Not only did it contribute to their defeat but they're not exactly blessed with goalscorers in the first place and his three-match ban is a big blow to them.
Midfielder Philip Billing has arguably been their best player this season and Australian midfielder Aaron Mooy ended a long goal drought when scoring both goals at Wolves. David Wagner will need plenty more from those two here.
These two have an interesting history between them of tending to win when playing as hosts. Bournemouth have mustered three wins and a draw from their last four matches on home soil against the Terriers. And going into this match they're ten points better off.
But I'm not sure I'd want to be taking just 3/4 (against anyone) on a side who have lost their last four matches in the league. Yes, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United were three of their opponents (Newcastle the others) but you've got to be thinking they'll be a little low on confidence.
For all of Huddersfield's problems, you could actually argue that 9/2 to beat an opponent with a similar sort of profile to the one (Wolves) they beat just last Monday is a decent price, especially given Bournemouth's current poor run.
It's not hard to see why the market is finding it so hard to split the over and under 2.5 goals runners. A healthy 77% of Bournemouth's matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season while for Huddersfield it's just 30% that have had three or more goals.
But closer inspection shows that it's the Terriers' home matches that are the ones so short on goals. Away from home, it's a straight 50/50 split on matches that have gone over or under the three-goal mark. Which suggests that overs is the way to go here. More on that in a minute.
If you want a decent bet on an 'off-the-beaten track' market, you can consider Bournemouth to score from a penalty. In 14 games this season, they've scored from a penalty in five of them, so just better than one in every three. They missed one as well, which makes the six they've been awarded this season more than anyone else in the league has had.
Considering you can get 4/1 on them scoring from one here, that's not a bad bet.
They are after all at home to a team who are 17th so you'd think these are optimal conditions for them to be awarded one here.
You can combine two or more selections in a same-game multi-bet. Here's a decent one. Callum Wilson has seven goals from 14 games this season and scored their goal against Manchester City. He's looking lively, confident and in excellent physical shape. He's 5/4 to score here and you can combine that with over 2.5 goals in the game. Those stats on Bournemouth's home matches suggest that it's pretty likely that we'll get them. The double comes to 3.35.
Points Staked: 21.0
Points Returned: 29.77 pts
P/L: +8.77 points