Aston Villa v Wolves: Visitors good for at least a point in slow-burner

Raul Jimenez
Raul Jimenez is coming back to form
  • Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
  • Sat 16 Oct, 16:00

Goals may be at a premium in this one and Wolves should get something from the game given their form, so put that in a double, says Jamie Pacheco.

"But if like me you believe the game might be low on goals, you have a decent option on the Bet Builder side of things."

Strong at both ends of the pitch

Aston Villa have started reasonably well with three wins, three losses and a draw. Probably just about par for the course.

The first thing they're showing is that there's life after Jack Grealish. He may be a regular starter for Manchester City and England too these days, but they cashed in when they thought it was right. And of course, that money was put to use.

Not any side can boast two out-and-out goalscorers, but Villa can. Ollie Watkins only has the one goal this season but last year he scored 14 in his first-ever season at this level, so he certainly has what it takes.

As for Danny Ings, we all know about his ability as a top-flight goalscorer. He was one of the players brought in with that Grealish money and has already contributed this year, with two goals and two assists from seven games.

At the other end of the pitch, Emiliano Martinez is flavour of the month in the world of goalkeepers. His Premier League and international performances have caught the eye to the extent that he's being lobbied for the UEFA top goalkeeper award.

Wolves improving of late

Wolves are in a very similar position to Villa. Both have three wins. But Wolves have four defeats, while Villa have three defeats and a draw; so there really isn't much in it.

What's worth mentioning is Wolves' improvement of late. They started really slowly but it's now three wins in their last four.

Last time out it was a 2-1 at home to Newcastle with Hwang Hee-Chan getting both goals. Perhaps more significantly, it was Raul Jimenez setting them both up.

After an understandably slow start to the season he seems to be up to pace now and as ever, will be their most important player on the field because the whole attacking game plan is based around him.

Simple conclusion: Villa too short

Let's just look at some stats before we get to the odds.

Opta tell us that Villa have found it tough in home games against Wolves. They've won just one of their last seven and that one win was back in 2018. Having said that, their current home form is good; they're unbeaten in their last five.

In the long run Wolves have struggled against the Villains but they've had more joy over the past few seasons. They've won four of their last seven.

Given they're currently only separated by a point in the table and you could argue that the hosts look a bit short at 2.35/4. There aren't many reasons as to why they should be considerable favourites.

A lay at that price gives you both 'other' options and is a decent way to go about things but either the draw at 3.45 or the Wolves win at 3.613/5 aren't to be sniffed at, either.

Will Trincao score at last?

If you think there might be goals, here are some players to consider.

That man Danny Ings scored against Villa last year on Southampton duty in a 4-3 win. He looks in better form than Watkins and may just be on penalty duty here but the 6/5 that he scores anytime is borderline value.

1280 Danny Ings England 2020.jpg

No-one else in the Villa side has more than one goal. But John McGinn is normally good for three or four goals a season, is the sort of player to come into his own in a Derby game and already has one for the season. He's currently 7/2 but you may well get twice those odds over on the Exchange when the market matures.

Hwang Hee-Chan is 16/5, a considerably bigger price than Jimenez (6/4), especially when you consider that it's Hwang who has three for the season, and not the Mexican.

And what about Fabio Trincao? He has the highest expected goals total of any player yet to score in the Premier League this season (2.4), with the Portuguese registering 15 shots without success so far (7 on target). Surely it's only a matter of time. He's 4/1 to break his duck here.

Low on goals with Wolves getting something

But if like me you believe the game might be low on goals, you have a decent option on the Bet Builder side of things.

All three of Wolves' away games this season have been 'no' on both teams to score, as have three of their four home games. So that's six out of seven.

Last season just 38% of their away games saw both teams score.

All of the last three between these two in the league saw at least one clean sheet, too. This one could be a slow-burner.

So 'no' looks the way to go. But I think 1-1 is a real live runner.

So at a slightly shorter price than 'no' on both teams to score, I'll go with under 2.5 goals at 8/11. I just can't see too many goals here and being afraid of that 1-1, I'll take the slightly shorter price.

I've already explained why the hosts look a bit on the short side in terms of their odds when there isn't much between them. So, take Wolves on the Double Chance market at 8/13.

The double comes to 2.44.

JAMIE'S 2021/22 P AND L

Points Wagered: 8
Points returned: 3.72
P and L: -4.28 pts

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