Aston Villa v QPR: Why Villa needn't sweat the doomsday scenario

Aston Villa have won five home games already in 2015
Aston Villa have won five home games already in 2015

Michael Lintorn is expecting a home win and over 2.5 goals in the high-stakes Tuesday night showdown between Aston Villa and QPR...

"QPR are the Premier League’s kings of complacency, following all six of their triumphs prior to this weekend’s with a defeat."
Best Bet: Back Aston Villa to win @ 2.166/5

Aston Villa v QPR
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Aston Villa 2.166/5, QPR 3.953/1, The Draw 3.45

Just when Aston Villa started to think that they were slithering out of relegation danger, Burnley, QPR and Leicester pulled them back in.

All three capitalised on Villa's reverse at Man United, with the Clarets holding Tottenham, QPR putting five straight defeats behind them to win 4-1 at West Brom and Leicester claiming only their third victory in 25 Premier League games against West Ham.

As a result, Villa will replace QPR in the bottom three if they lose this fixture - initially scheduled for FA Cup semi-final weekend, when the midlanders will be facing Liverpool or Blackburn at Wembley - due to inferior goal difference.

They close April away to Tottenham and Man City as well, so would almost certainly start May in the drop zone if they get it wrong against the Hoops.

Tim Sherwood's preparatory tactics have been questionable. He has criticised his squad ("we've got a few men in there but we've got a lot of pretty much icing-on-the-cake players"), overhyped the match ("the biggest of my managerial career") and discussed recruiting Chris Ramsey in the summer.

However, there is one trend that suggests that those media missteps and a slightly overstated injury list ("I've never seen an injury crisis like it", claimed Sherwood, though there are only four confirmed absentees) won't prevent Villa from pocketing a priceless three points at 2.166/5.

QPR are the Premier League's kings of complacency, following all six of their triumphs prior to this weekend's with a defeat. They conceded two or more goals on every occasion and lost three of those encounters by a margin of two goals or more.

Factor in that the Londoners remain the division's worst travellers with 13 losses in 15 despite the success at West Brom, and Aston Villa's run of three home wins in five, and the case for the hosts strengthens further. QPR have taken a mere point from six prior Premier League visits to Villa Park.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Relegation "six-pointers" are stereotyped as cagey affairs, but Aston Villa reject that guideline. They thrashed Sunderland 6-1 in a similar situation in April 2013, four of their five home clashes with sides below them last season yielded over 2.5 goals and three in four against bottom-seven teams this term have done likewise.

Ramsey may be "up there with the very best coaches" that Sherwood has ever seen, yet he is still searching for the secret to stopping QPR from haemorrhaging goals.

Since having his interim stint extended to the end of the campaign, he has overseen six games and obtained zero clean sheets, leaking two strikes per outing on average. They haven't fired a blank in that period either though, resulting in every single contest exceeding 2.5 goals.

The past five Villa-QPR Premier League meetings at Villa Park all went over the line too, with the latest two finishing 2-2 and 3-2.

Best Bet: Back Aston Villa to win @ 2.166/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.226/5

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