Aston Villa v Newcastle
Saturday May 7, 15:00 BST
The season can't end soon enough for Aston Villa as they somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at Vicarage Road last Saturday.
This is their final home game of the campaign and I can't imagine that there will be a lap of honour at full time. That being said, the players may want to send their fans home with something good to remember going into next year's Championship campaign.
In truth, Villa have improved slightly in recent weeks and they should really have beaten Watford last weekend. Prior to that they lost here to Southampton but they did at least manage to score twice on that day, and they didn't let their heads drop after falling behind early on.
Things were looking bleak for Newcastle not so long ago as Rafa Benitez's men were beaten at Norwich and then at Southampton. A run of four without defeat that has seen them pick up eight points from a possible 12 means that they are out of the relegation zone for the first time in many months though.
It's still incredibly tight at that bottom of the table however as just two points covers Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich - with the latter pair having a game in hand.
That means that The Magpies need to win this match as even if they did secure a victory over Spurs on the final day, three or four points from their final two outings may not be enough for them to survive.
Aston Villa 6.25/1 Newcastle 1.654/6 The Draw 4.216/5
If you look at the bare form you wouldn't make Newcastle as heavy a favourite as they are. Yes, it is 11 straight defeats for the hosts but there have been some brighter moments of late and they have started putting the ball in the net again.
The visitors are on the up but I have huge concerns over their results away from St James' Park. They came from two behind to draw at Anfield last weekend but that draw only ended a run of nine away losses on the bounce.
Backing a team to win who have won just two away games all season at those odds is a quick route to the poorhouse and while they do of course have all the motivation and desire going into the match, there are clearly some underlying issues about their performances on the road.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.9420/21 Under 2.5 Goals 2.0621/20
I have already touched upon Villa's improvement in the attacking areas and that makes me believe that over 2.5 goals has to be good value at just below the even money mark.
Newcastle pretty much have to win so they will be going all out for the three points and there last three away scorelines have been 3-2, 3-1 and 2-2.
The hosts have nothing to lose and since their relegation has been confirmed, the players have been playing with a bit more freedom. Their two most recent matches yielded six goals and five goals respectively and I think we could well be in for a high-scoring affair here.
I normally put up a correct score at a double figure price for my best cash out prospect and while I've got another one today, this time it's a whopping 75.074/1.
We often get crazy scorelines at the end of the season, especially when one of the sides involved are desperate for points. You can back 3-3 at the 75.074/1 mark and it wouldn't surprise me if it traded at a single figure price in-play, offering us a profitable cash-out proposition.
Back The Draw @ 4.216/5
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9420/21
Best Cash Out
Back a 3-3 Correct Score @ 75.074/1
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