Aston Villa v Bournemouth: Home-loss specialists to deliver again

Gabriel Agbonlahor is back for Aston Villa to try to add to his 2015/16 tally of one goal
Gabriel Agbonlahor is back for Aston Villa to try to add to his 2015/16 tally of one goal

Bournemouth flopped in their last two matches, but should be trusted to recover against hapless Aston Villa...


"Aston Villa have lost ten of their 16 league games at Villa Park this season, including seven reverses in ten against teams seventh and lower."

Back Bournemouth to win @ 2.285/4

Aston Villa 3.613/5 v Bournemouth 2.285/4; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday, 15:00


Aston Villa

Here's a spoiler to get you started: this preview isn't going to be too heavy on Aston Villa positives. For that reason and try to cheer up any Villa fans in attendance, let's put the biggest one that this writer can find out there at the very beginning:

The club's previous managerial change was conducted after a run of six successive Premier League defeats, and they went on to make it seven under a caretaker against vastly superior opposition (for Chelsea, read Tottenham) before finally earning a result to be proud of on the eighth matchday.

On that occasion, it was a 0-0 draw with Manchester City at Villa Park. Pessimists will rightly observe that back then, the players had a new boss to impress in Remi Garde, whereas this time the board are in no rush to hire anyone, while they entered that weekend a bridgeable four points from safety, compared to 15 now, having appeared to give up on survival months ago. Still, we tried!

Another speckle of cheer is that Adama Traore may be fit for his first outing since January 2, with Ciaran Clark also potentially returning. Jordan Amavi and Libor Kozak won't be so lucky, and Alan Hutton is suspended. Gabriel Agbonlahor is back after a fleeting internal ban though...


Bournemouth

The Cherries carry the shame of being one of only four Premier League sides to have dropped points at home to Aston Villa, and the sole one beaten by them in such circumstances, but were surely delighted to spot this on the fixture list following 3-0 and 4-0 losses to Tottenham and Man City.

Those setbacks haven't significantly increased the danger of demotion, with the debutants still 11 points clear of Sunderland in 18th, 13 ahead of Newcastle in 19th and an unbridgeable 22 points above their doomed hosts.

One slight irritation is the manner in which their injury list is sneakily expanding. Tyrone Mings, Junior Stanislas, Benik Afobe and Callum Wilson will all skip the trip to the second city, and Adam Smith and Harry Arter are further doubts.


Match Odds

2.285/4 might be a slimmer price than you expected to find on Bournemouth given their defeat in the reverse encounter and their recent surrenders to Spurs and the Citizens, yet there are several statistics which suggest that anything above evens on Eddie Howe's men represents great value.

Aston Villa have lost ten of their 16 league games at Villa Park this season and, just to prove that they know no such thing as a home banker, their record against the also-rans is actually worse than their figures against the elite, enduring seven reverses in ten against teams seventh and lower.

Their south coast guests by contrast excel away to the rest of the riff-raff, being beaten in a single one of their eight visits to adversaries placed tenth or lower, winning half of those contests.

They are in better form in those clashes now than at any prior stage of the campaign, collecting seven points from a possible nine since February, and prevailing 3-1 in the latest such showdown against the Newcastle squad closest to Villa in the table last month.


Both Teams to Score? No

At least one side keeping a clean sheet in this collision has traded at 2.0811/10 despite ample evidence that Saturday's scoreline will showcase a zero or two.

Six of the past seven matches held at Villa Park have involved one of the participants failing to net, with the Villans responsible on four occasions and their opponents being caught short twice.

Additionally, ten of the bottom club's 14 skirmishes with teams positioned between tenth and 17th featured a firing of blanks, including their opening day journey to the Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth have a five-in-seven Both Teams to Score? No strike rate in all competitions since mid-February and are 3.613/5 to triumph to nil.


Recommended Bet:

Back Bournemouth to win @ 2.285/4


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