Aston Villa v Burnley: Hosts could let lead go again

Dave Tindall
27 September 2019

There could be more frustration for Villa boss Dean Smith

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Aston Villa's inability to close out leads could haunt them again on Saturday, says Dave Tindall...

"Villa have dropped a league-high six points from winning positions in the Premier League this season - a stat which reflects their promise but lack of nous to keep a lead."

1pt Villa/Draw Half Time/Full Time at 1413/1

Aston Villa v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00

Villa need more than promise

Aston Villa have flickered with positive signs during their opening six matches but a meagre four-point haul has left them in the bottom three.

The good news for this fixture is that all those points have come at Villa Park - a 2-0 win over Everton and a 0-0 draw with West Ham.

Their overall away form shouldn't be written off either.

Dean Smith's side were leading at both Spurs and Arsenal before losing to late goals while they've scored 6-1 (v Crewe) and 3-1 (v Brighton) road wins in the Carabao Cup.

But winning home fixtures like these will likely go a long way to deciding whether they're good enough to book another season of Premier League football next season.

The current relegation odds have them as second favourites to go down.

Burnley looking to build on good start

After suffering Europa League-itis in the early part of last season (Wolves currently have the same affliction), Burnley head to Villa Park sat in the top half of the table.

Their tally of eights points is the same as Spurs, Manchester United and Chelsea and is good enough for ninth place.

Just two of those points have come on the road but a 2-1 loss at Arsenal followed by 1-1 draws at Wolves and Brighton show that they're digging in and are hard to beat.

They secured their point at Brighton with a Jeff Hendrik strike in injury-time and built on that with a 2-0 win over Norwich at Turf Moor thanks to a brace from Chris Wood.

One quirky stat is that Burnley have won each of their last five Premier League matches against promoted sides.

Villa favourites for victory

The Claret and Blue derby is fairly tight with home advantage seeing Aston Villa trading as 2.486/4 favourites. Burnley are 3.1511/5 to bank all three points while The Draw is the outsider at 3.45.

One obvious negative stat for Burnley is that they haven't kept a clean sheet away from home in their last 10 Premier League outings and they're winless in the latest five of those.

Goal count hard to assess

Burnley's lack of shutouts on the road is balanced somewhat by Villa keeping clean sheets in their last two at home.

That's reflected in the 2.5 Goals market which is virtually a pick 'em with Unders a marginal favourite at 1.9620/21.

That could go either way so it's hard to get involved.

Both teams to Score is a little more lopsided though and 2.245/4 for 'No' looks a touch generous. After all, it's landed in Villa's last two home games.

Early trend worth following

It could seem a little too soon to make definitive judgements after just six games but there could be a pattern with exploiting.

Villa have dropped a league-high six points from winning positions in the Premier League this season - a stat which reflects their promise but lack of nous to keep a lead.

Add that to a more wily Burnley side coming back to grab a draw at Brighton and I'm drawn towards the Half Time/Full Time market.The Aston Villa/Burnley option is 1413/1 and that's worth a small play.

Strikers in good nick

Burnley's frontmen - Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood - have six goals between them in the opening six games which makes both legitimate goalscorer punts.

Barnes is 2.9215/8 while Wood trades at 3.39/4.

But I have a preference for Aston Villa's Brazilian striker Wesley.

He's scored in two of his last four games - home to Everton and away to Arsenal - and has been getting his shots away consistently.

With Burnley leaking goals on the road, Wesley is worth a go at 32/1 to add to his tally.