Arsenal v Man City: Follow the trends and back BT Sport to complete the 0-0 hat-trick

Arsene Wenger's men should have enough to stifle City
Arsene Wenger's men should have enough to stifle City
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Lewis Jones is hoping for a third straight Premier League bore draw in front of the BT Sport cameras as two big guns collide at The Emirates. Read on to see how he's going to profit from it...

"Of those aforementioned top-dog encounters at The Emirates (31 games), 12 finished in stalemate, including this meeting last season. Both sides would probably take a point too, which only pours more fuel onto the draw fire at a whopping 3.55."

Back the draw @ 3.55 (2pts)

Arsenal v Man City
Saturday, KO 12:45
Live on BT Sport


Arsenal

It's been a sticky start to the season for the Gunners. Five points from the first three games is surely fewer than Arsene Wenger would have expected from games against Crystal Palace, Everton and Leicester City.

Champions League football has been secured though with a hard fought two legged victory over Besiktas, which would have probably been top of Wenger's priorities for the first month of the season.

That word "hard fought" has been mentioned by pundits and commentators at a much more frequent ratio this season than what is usually expected of this Arsenal side. The Gunners have already gained a league-high four points from losing positions.

However, it's far too early to define whether the north Londoners have completely erased their soft under-belly that has restricted their Premier League title progress over the last decade. We'll find out a lot more about that aspect following this visit from the current champions.

Defender Kieran Gibbs, and midfielders Mikel Arteta and Mesut Ozil are all fit and will be included in the squad while Wenger was keeping his cards close to his chest in the pre match press conference on whether new signing Danny Welbeck, fresh from his two-goal blitz for England, will be thrown in from the start.

When he does make his debut the Three Lions forward will become only the third player in Premier League history to play for both Arsenal and Manchester United (Mikael Silvestre and Robin van Persie).


Man City

City have not lost two consecutive league games since October 2010 but will snap that stat with a loss here after their surprisingly lacklustre home defeat to Stoke City before the international break. It was a performance that was hard to see coming following two ruthless victories over Newcastle (2-0) and Liverpool (3-1).

It's worth noting that Manuel Pellegrini may have one eye on Wednesday night's mouth-watering and richly important Champions League clash with Bayern Munich, so it's probably best to check team news before going in too heavy handed on any City related bet if that's your plan of attack.


Match Odds

The first thing that pops into most football bettor's minds when assessing Arsenal's chances of beating a fellow top four side is usually one of negative substance.

To a certain extent they are right to take that view, but if you scratch the surface a little, you find that Arsenal are actually very capable of nicking points off their rivals.

Admittedly, Wenger's men have been eye-wateringly horrendous against top-four teams on the road, losing 6-3 to City, 5-1 at Liverpool and 6-0 at Chelsea last season. That record away from home against the big boys (including Man Utd) reads P15 W1 D1 L13.

However, at home the Gunners boast a far more respectable line of form.

Over the last five seasons against the top teams (Tottenham, Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) the Gunners have only lost nine games out of 31 and they have been defeated just once in the last 28 home games against Man City - a 2-0 defeat two seasons ago.

In fact, last season Arsenal - along with Chelsea - were the only teams not to lose a home game against a fellow top-10 side. That included a 2-0 win over Liverpool, a 0-0 with Chelsea and a 1-1 with City themselves.

With all that and City's worrying stutter against Stoke in mind, I'm willing to completely ignore quotes of 2.526/4 for the away win.

I'd even be tempted to lay it outright if it was to shorten closer to kick-off.

Arsenal can be backed at 3.052/1 and that again looks a tad short considering their recent form and the clear strength of this City backline. The draw has to be the best bet here.

Of those aforementioned top-dog encounters at The Emirates (31 games), 12 finished in stalemate, including this meeting last season. Both sides would probably take a point too, which only pours more fuel onto the draw fire at a whopping 3.55.


Correct Score

When a draw is a huge runner in games of this nature, correct score trading angles also need to be thrown into the equation, especially the 0-0, which is always overpriced in top-four battles.

Markets can get a little carried away with the strength of firepower on show and the 0-0 price always drifts to a figure that has significant trading scope.

This is where the Betfair Cash Out feature comes into play.

It has done here with 15.014/1 on offer for a goalless draw, which has been the final scoreline in the last two Saturday live BT Sport matches. You've got to see it to believe it, apparently.

That 15.014/1 will half in price within 30 minutes of a scoreless game and from there it's a case of how greedy you want to get with your profit. It's a nerve racking but potentially very fruitful way of greening up.


Recommended Bet:
Back the draw @ 3.55 (2pts)

Cash Out Tip:
Back 0-0 @ 15.014/1 and Cash Out when you're happy


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Listen below as Mike Norman previews the 3pm kick offs in the Premier League on Saturday...



Lewis Jones Premier League P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 6.5pts
P/L: -7.5pts

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