Lewis Jones took on Arsenal in the markets last weekend at Chelsea and came out with three winning tips from three selections. He's back on Arsenal duty this weekend but gives them more of a chance at The Emirates at stifling Man City and sees a low scoring encounter on the cards.....
Arsenal v Man City
Live on Sky Sports 1
Swansea's late equaliser on Tuesday night all-but ended Arsenal's title challenge for another year and now the FA Cup is the only silverware that Arsene Wenger to get his hands on this season.
The Gunners are now six points behind league-leaders Chelsea and have won just three of their last nine Premier League games.
Wenger has no new injury worries for this intriguing clash with momentum building City.
Like a steam train roaring through the countryside, Man City are charging towards reclaiming their Premier League crown.
Tuesday night's 3-0 win at Old Trafford over local rivals Manchester United was achieved in the style of potential champions. Controlling the game from the outset, City upped the pace when they wanted to and although it wasn't a complete battering, whenever City went forward you sensed a goal was coming.
However, a trip to The Emirates, where they have struggled in the past, should be more of a test.
The negative vibes surrounding Arsenal at the moment have made them extremely weak in the outright market for this high-stakes encounter. They are now as big as 3.8514/5 for victory.
However, it would be wrong to completely rule them out of being able to test City at The Emirates.
Admittedly, Wenger's men have been eye-wateringly horrendous against top-four teams this season, losing 6-3 to City, 5-1 at Liverpool and 6-0 at Chelsea and now their recent record away from home against the big boys reads P15 W1 D1 L13. Pretty damning, eh?
But to judge Arsenal on this clash on that record would be a wrong betting tactic. At The Emirates against clubs that hold a lofty position in the Premier League they are actually notoriously hard to beat.
Over the last five seasons against the top teams (Tottenham, Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) the north Londoners have only lost nine games out of 30 and last season's 2-0 defeat to City season ended a run of 27 league game unbeaten run at home for the Gunners against the blue half of Manchester (D8 L19).
Title seeking City can be backed at 2.1211/10 for victory.
Of those 30 top-dog encounters, 11 finished in stalemate at The Emirates and considering Arsenal's difficult to beat nature at home (they haven't lost at home against those aforementioned sides at home this season) and City's solid but unspectacular form of late, the draw looks a huge runner at 3.65n/a. That's where my money will be going.
Just a word of advice for Arsenal backers, for those that do fancy dabbling on Arsenal's price for a win, then instead of taking the 3.8514/5 for an outright win, bulk up the price by taking the 6.3n/a for the Gunners to win by one goal.
If you take wins against Spurs out of the equation all bar one of Arsenal's win at The Emirates against one of the big sides in the last five years have been by a solitary goal.
A Joe Hart-inspired City have kept five consecutive clean sheets in the top-flight for the first time since 1915 while Arsenal, despite their woes on their travels, have kept more clean sheets at home than any other Premier League team this season, including shutting out Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham.
Six of those 11 draws I mentioned in the Match Odds section ended up 0-0 with this fixture failing to produce any goals on two of the last four occasions at The Emirates.
Unsurprisingly, there have been just four goals scored in the last five meetings in all competitions between Arsenal and Man City. The odds of 15.5n/a are massive from a trading point of view.
Back the 0-0 at those odds pre-match with a view to laying off in-play when you feel comfortable with your payout.
A wise old man once told me: if it isn't broke don't fix it. I'm putting that theory in practice this weekend regarding the chances of Olivier Giroud scoring.
Regular readers of my ramblings (hi mum), will be well aware of my feeling towards Giroud's aptitude to come to the party at the big games.
Like an unreliable mate, he always lets you down when it matters most.
In tipping up 3/3 in my Chelsea v Arsenal preview last weekend, Giroud once again proved that he goes missing in the big games when a big powerful performance is needed from the focal point of Arsenal's attack.
The Frenchman has played against one of City, Man Utd and Chelsea 10 times since joining from Montpellier and has failed to score in any of those matches.
My lay on him to score anytime at 3.505/2 in the Chelsea clash reaped the maximum reward and it's with great delight that I report he's even shorter to score against City due to the fact he notched one in midweek against Swansea.
Us layers can get him in the book at 2.56/4 for this clash against a team that haven't conceded a goal in the Premier League in the last five games.