Arsenal v Leicester: Odds don't reflect reality

Can Leicester striker Jamie Vardy blow Arsenal away?
Can Leicester striker Jamie Vardy blow Arsenal away?
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It's a vital match in the title race and Dan Fitch thinks Arsenal are way too short against league leaders Leicester...


"Leicester’s performance at Manchester City last week can’t be ignored."

Lay Arsenal at 1.794/5

Arsenal v Leicester
Sunday, 12:00
Live On Sky Sports 1


Arsenal

Arsenal have been in poor form of late, but the Betfair punters nevertheless have them as the 3.1511/5 favourites to win the Premier League.

It seems something of an overreaction to the Gunners ending a four game winless streak with a victory at Bournemouth last weekend, especially as Spurs remain above them and Leicester are some five points clear at the top.

To be fair to Arsenal, they have shown in the past that they are capable of putting together a sizeable run of wins and it seems that the markets are banking on them doing just that, while Leicester buckle under the pressure.

Arsene Wenger must do without the injured Santi Cazorla, Tomas Rosicky, Danny Welbeck and Jack Wilshire, but should have new signing Mohamed Elneny available after the Egyptian missed the match against Bournemouth due to the birth of his child. Elneny could start on the bench, with Francis Coquelin expected to return to central midfield alongside Aaron Ramsey.


Leicester

The Foxes are rated as the second favourites to win the Premier League at 3.55, despite their healthy lead at the top and a series of eye-catching performances.

It's nothing new for Leicester, who have become used to being wrote off. Indeed, this was the month where their title challenge was expected to flounder, as they faced a tough fixture list containing some of English football's more traditional heavyweight opponents.

Instead they professionally saw off Liverpool, before destroying Manchester City away from home. Now only Arsenal remain and if Leicester can emerge from this game without a loss, they will surely become the title favourites.

This is especially true if Claudio Ranieri's luck holds out in respect to the health of his squad. Only Matthew James and Jeff Schlupp are injured for the trip to the Emirates.


Match Odds

Arsenal are the odds on favourites at 1.784/5, with the draw at 4.1 and Leicester at 5.04/1.

Given the sides' respective form, these prices make little sense and are a perfect example of how reputation can often override logic. Arsenal come into this match without a win in their last two home games and the pressure is all on them. Leicester can lose this match and still walk away with a two point lead, but defeat for Arsenal would see the gap stretch to eight points and surely end their title hopes.

Given that a draw would be a result that would not be disastrous for either side, it's a tempting proposition at the price. However, Leicester's performance at Manchester City last week can't be ignored and the safer option is to lay Arsenal at 1.794/5.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at 2.1411/10, with overs at 1.855/6.

Again, it's a market that defies recent events. Arsenal's last four games have all produced less than three goals, while Leicester have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven games.

Under 2.5 goals looks great value, as does Leicester's hopes of keeping a clean sheet. Though Arsenal will surely be up for this one, a price of 6.05/1 for Leicester to not concede looks huge given the Gunners' struggles in front of goal.


To Score

Alexis Sanchez scored a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture earlier this season and is rated at 2.789/5 to find the net.

For Leicester, the 3.1511/5 for a rejuvenated Jamie Vardy looks big, as does the likely price of 4.57/2 for Riyad Mahrez after his brilliant display against Manchester City.


Recommended Bets

Lay Arsenal at 1.794/5
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.1411/10
Back Vardy to score at 3.1511/5


*For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair


Dan Fitch 2015/16 Season P/L

Staked: 74 pts
Returned: 88.51 pts
P/L: +14.51

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