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Arsenal v Everton: Value lies with Unders

Arsene Wenger could be in for an afternoon of frustration
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Dave Tindall says the goal count could be lower than the market suggests when Arsenal close their campaign at home to Everton this Sunday...


"Unders would have landed in the last three Arsenal home games (v Sunderland, Man Utd and Leicester) while it's a similar story with Everton's last three away games - 0-1 v Swansea, 0-0 at West Ham and 1-1 v Man Utd."

2pts Back Under 2.5 goals at [2.82]

Arsenal v Everton
Sunday 21 May, 15:00


Arsenal


Will Groundhog Day have a different ending this time?

For years, the pattern of Arsenal challenging for the title, fading disappointingly and then coming on strong to make the top four/finish above Spurs has played out again and again and again.

And yet, they go into this one with their Champions League hopes now resting on Liverpool cocking up against Middlesbrough.

So, do Arsenal keep their end of the deal? Or do they start with positive intent but shoulders then drop if they get wind that Jurgen Klopp's men are cruising to victory against Boro?

Playing at home will surely ensure the Gunners give it their best shot and they're arguably in some of their best form of the season after winning four straight matches (joint longest run of Premier League victories they've achieved this term).


Everton

The idea that Everton will roll over here in a bid to make sure they do their neighbours across Stanley Park no favours is a lame one but doesn't mean they won't avoid a spanking of course.

Arsenal have their tails up and are finishing fast while Everton are stuck in seventh and will end there regardless of what happens anywhere else.

Everton did beat Watford last Friday but before that they'd lost back-to-back Premier League games away to Swansea and home to Chelsea against sides who were far more motivated.

They've already accumulated 14 more points than they did in the previous two campaigns although it was only three seasons ago that the Toffees banked 72 points and took fifth above Spurs and Man Utd so Everton fans won't be going too overboard about what they've achieved this time.

Their season has rather fizzled out this time although Ronald Koeman generally sets them up to be solid on the road so they could certainly frustrate the hosts even though the attacking spark has gone in recent weeks.


Match Odds

Arsenal are [1.44] to get the win, with Everton [8.0] and the draw [5.4].

Only Spurs, Chelsea and Everton themselves have won more home points than Arsenal. The Gunners have taken victory in 13 of their 17 home games with just three draws and two defeats.

Everton have managed just four away wins (the same number as 17th-placed Swansea) while they've taken home a point on six occasions.

Arsenal have dominated this fixture down the years although Everton have drawn two of the last four Premier League fixtures at the Emirates.


To Score

The other storyline here was set to be the battle for the Golden Boot with Everton's Romelu Lukaku (24) leading the way, one ahead of Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez (23).

And then Harry Kane went and smashed in four against Leicester on Thursday night to leapfrog both and set the new target of 26.

Sanchez, who scored in Tuesday's 2-0 win over Sunderland, will never give up and is [1.79] to add to his tally and [15.0] to bag the hat-trick that would see him pull level with Kane.

Lukaku is [2.8] to get his goal count moving again after four blanks since netting at home to Burnley. It's also worth noting that the Belgian has only managed a single away goal in 2017.

Elsewhere, Olivier Giroud is in a good run after scoring three in his last four games. He's also enjoyed this fixture, netting four times in his last three home games against the Merseysiders.

As with Sanchez, backers will have to accept an odds-on price, with Giroud [1.82] to wheel away in celebration.


Over/Under 2.5 goals

Those Golden Boot dreams have rather been flattened by Kane and that's partly why I think the goal expectation line is too high.

With Over 2.5 just [1.52], it gives the opportunity to cash in on the Unders at [2.82].

Arsenal could only put two unanswered goals past Sunderland and they've actually scored more times on the road (38) than they have at the Emirates (a modest 36).

Unders would have landed in the last three Arsenal home games (v Sunderland, Man Utd and Leicester) while it's a similar story with Everton's last three away games - 0-1 v Swansea, 0-0 at West Ham and 1-1 v Man Utd.

Arsenal took 72 minutes to breach Sunderland's defence and, as stated earlier, if Liverpool are comfortable at home to Middlesbrough, the desire for the Gunners to find a goal at all costs is diminished.

Lukaku is much less of a threat away from Goodison while, as a final bit of evidence, the goal make-up in Arsenal v Everton Premier League fixtures in North London over the last five seasons reads: 3-2-2-0-1.

Unders backers have collected four times in the last five years and they're getting a value price to land the bet again.


Ref watch

Michael Oliver gets the nod for this one. The Northumberland official has shown 128 yellows in his 42 matches (average 3.04) so is one of the more lenient refs.

The last time he took charge of Arsenal, he booked three of their players in the 2-0 loss at Spurs.

In his two Everton away games this season, he's taken the name of two Toffees in each match (v Man City and Spurs).


Opta stat

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League home games against Everton (W16 D4); their longest ever unbeaten streak against a side in the competition.


Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals at [2.82].


***


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Dave Tindall's P/L, 2016/17

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 62.35pts
P/L: +2.35pts

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