It's worth persisting with a ploy to back the favourites to win while conceding once again, as all evidence points to that outcome, says Jamie Pacheco.
"The strategy of backing the pre-match favourite to win whilst conceding has worked well for us of late. We had Arsenal to do so at home to Villa two weeks ago and Man City to beat Everton while conceding last weekend. And if there’s one match where we should stick to that strategy at least one more time, it’s this one."
Arsenal v Bournemouth
Sunday October 6, 14:00
Plenty for Emery to be happy about
It's been a decent few weeks for Arsenal. Since losing 3-1 at Liverpool, they're unbeaten in seven matches across three competitions, particularly impressing in the Europa League where they won their last two matches 3-0 and 4-0. In that period they also hammered Forest 5-0 in the Carabao Cup and have climbed up to fourth in the league table.
What will also please Unai Emery is that those Europa League wins were largely secured thanks to youngsters. Reiss Neilson, Joe Willock and Gabriel Martinelli in particular all caught the eye in beating Standard Liege 4-0 on Thursday and Emery knows he can count on them in other competitions, if needed.
He'll also be glad to have Kieran Tierney available at last. The former Celtic left-back was injured when he arrived and will really add something to the squad with his darting runs and accurate crossing.
Cherries looking potent in attack
Bournemouth will be pretty happy about life themselves. Their last three league matches have yielded seven points after back-to-back 3-1 wins in the league were followed by a hard-fought 2-2 draw at home to West Ham last weekend.
The star man is Callum Wilson, who has five goals and three assists to his name already this season. He could make it five league matches in a row that he scores if he gets one here (Opta). With three in his last four against the Gunners, he'll feel he's in with a decent shout of doing just that.
But other players are making good contributions upfront as well in league matches. Joshua King has two goals and three assists and young Liverpool loanee Harry Wilson has scored three times. Another man with a Liverpool, connection, Dominic Solanke, has now started three matches in a row as part of a potent front three. Let's see how ambitious Eddie Howe is in setting his team up for this one.
Don't want to be opposing Gunners
Arsenal are [1.48] to win the match. Justified? On historic stats, yes. Take your pick from these damning stats: Arsenal have won all five of their home matches against Bournemouth, the Cherries have taken just four points from eight Premier League matches against Arsenal and only Stoke and Burnley have visited Arsenal in the PL more often than the Cherries without picking up a point.
Add the fact that Emery's troops have lost just once in their last 21 at home in the league and you can see why the home win is weekend coupon material.
The strategy of backing the pre-match favourite to win whilst conceding has worked well for us of late. We had Arsenal to do so at home to Villa two weeks ago and Man City to beat Everton while conceding last weekend. And if there's one match where we should stick to that strategy at least one more time, it's this one.
We're confident Arsenal will win after all those stats pointing to just that while there are good reasons to think Bournemouth will get at least one. Such as the fact that the visitors have scored in every league match so far this season or that they've netted eight goals in their last three. Or that Arsenal have conceded in each of their last six league matches, only keeping a clean sheet at home to Newcastle in Week 1.
It's 11/8 the home win with both teams scoring and that looks decent.
You don't get any prizes for originality in this tipping game so I won't be making any apologies about my next tip. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is in the form of his life with eight goals so far this season from nine appearances and boy, does he love playing on a Sunday: he's scored in each of his last six games played on that day.
We've gone through Callum Wilson's credentials already and as their main man in fantastic form, he's worth backing for a goal too. Aubameyang (4/7) and Wilson (23/10) both scoring comes to 5.5 as a same-game multi.
Jamie's 2019/20 Premier League P and L
Points Staked: 11.5
Points Returned: 18.8
P&L: +7.3 pts