Burnley v Crystal Palace
One swallow does not a summer make. Burnley won 2-1 at home to QPR last weekend but it was the first time in their last five outings at Turf Moor that they'd produced a high-scoring game. Level on points, neither side will want to lose this match to such a close relegation rival and that should ensure that both are at their most cautious. Given that we're talking about two of the most defensive teams in the division, that means fans could be in for a long afternoon.
Eight of Burnley's 11 home fixtures this season have gone under 2.5 goals. Palace meanwhile have been even more miserly, producing three 0-0 draws in their last five away matches. Clearly playing for a point is a major part of the Palace game plan on the road. And that might just suit Burnley who, having finally escaped the relegation zone, might just be glad of the chance to inch away from it.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.684/6
Newcastle United v Southampton
Southampton have been granite-like on the road this season, setting themselves up like a giant boulder which home teams have then usually been unable to move. But that could change against a Newcastle side who've been so open at home that the Saints could well find themselves getting sucked into a normal game.
Newcastle's home matches have been averaging three goals a game. And given their mid-table position, they may well feel like it's now or never when it comes to making a bid for the coveted higher echelons of the division. The Magpies have been playing fast and loose in their last couple of home fixtures, which ended 3-2 and 3-3. And a team with Southampton's quality are sure to capitalise on the opportunities that look likely to present themselves. They could though get suckered into the unfamiliar territory of going toe to toe.
Meanwhile, Newcastle's caretaker manager John Carver must realise he's probably only got one more crack at playing with the big train set and so might choose to go out in a blaze of glory. If he does, we could be in for quite some fun.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.226/5
West Ham United v Hull City
Hull are in the drop zone now, fighting for their Premier League survival. Every point counts more now than it ever seemed to do earlier in the season. Even a draw could be enough to lift Steve Bruce's side out of the bottom three this weekend and so I think we'll see the Tigers at their fighting best this Sunday, scrapping hard for whatever they can get.
Hull only score one goal a game away from home, on average. So to bag the win, they'll know they'll most likely need to keep a clean sheet. Hence I'm anticipating a low-risk strategy from the away side certainly early-on, if not throughout the game, as they hope to nick a goal that they can defend.
West Ham by contrast will have more much more ambitious plans and will be looking to get at Hull from the start. The Hammers though have lost momentum somewhat in recent weeks, especially in front of goal, scoring just five goals in their last five matches. And recent form suggests they could find Hull a tough nut to crack, in what looks set to be a highly competitive encounter.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.768/11
Manchester City v Arsenal
With Arsenal desperate for a win if they're to bridge the 11 point gap to City, I think we'll see Arsene Wenger opt for a bold, attacking line-up at the Etihad. With the Gunners conceding almost one and a half goals per game on average on the road, they can ill afford to sit back and hope for the best. City have been scoring two goals a game at home and look certain to get on the scoresheet at some point. So Arsenal's best option would seem to be an offensive one, with attack likely to represent their best form of defence.
City have looked especially vulnerable of late, conceding twice to both Burnley and Sunderland in their last two home games. That's a fact that's sure to have caught the eye of Wenger, who could finally get the chance to display his wealth of attacking riches all at the same time. For me, this has the potential to be one of the games of the season and packed with goals.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.635/8