Andrew Atherley expects more difficulty on the road for QPR at Newcastle and Burnley at Stoke...
"Newcastle's home record when scoring since the start of last season is W10 D4 L2 (a 67% win rate) and their recent revival is also encouraging. They have won their last five games in all competitions"
Back Newcastle to beat QPR at 1.855/6
Last week I noted that the poor away form of the promoted teams made them worth backing against on the road and now is the time to put up the money. Both QPR and Burnley have tricky away matches on Saturday and have to be opposed.
Collectively the away record of QPR and Burnley is W0 D2 L8 and they have scored just four goals between them in those 10 matches. That makes them the worst two away teams in the Premier League and the lack of goals means the situation is difficult for them to turn around.
QPR have conceded in all five away matches and lost every time, indicating a high chance of defeat if they fail to keep a clean sheet at Newcastle on Saturday.
Newcastle's home record when scoring since the start of last season is W10 D4 L2 (a 67% win rate) and their recent revival is also encouraging. They have won their last five games in all competitions and it is also notable that their three losses in the Premier League this season came when they were shut out (by Manchester City, Southampton and Stoke).
It is arguable that Alan Pardew's team just needed easier opposition because they are unbeaten this season against bottom-half teams (W4 D3 L0) and have taken 15 of their 16 points in those games.
The return of Papiss Cisse was also significant (in 286 minutes on the pitch, he has scored four goals and helped Newcastle earn five points) and during his latest absence Ayoze Perez has started to blossom.
Newcastle's draw rate is a slight concern but they have a decent shot of beating QPR at 1.855/6.
Stoke, who host Burnley, are also adept at winning at home to the poorer defensive teams. Since the turn of the year their home record when scoring is W8 D3 L1 and it has taken a high-class team to concede at the Britannia and take something from the game.
The only team to beat Stoke in those circumstances in 2014 is a Luis Suarez-inspired Liverpool last season, while the draws have been against Everton, Swansea (both last season) and West Ham (this season).
Burnley are not in the class of those opponents and Stoke rate a good chance of the win at 1.695/7.
The stats indicate the outcome will hinge on whether Burnley keep a clean sheet. They have done that four times this season, earning six of their seven points that way, but have a W0 D1 L6 record when conceding.
With both Newcastle and Stoke having edged their way into the top half of the table, this does not look the weekend for QPR or Burnley to achieve a better result.
QPR have a W0 D2 L4 record against top-half teams, conceding every time, and Burnley's record is W0 D1 L5, with the sole point coming from their only clean sheet in that category against Manchester United.
Back Newcastle to beat QPR at 1.855/6 (1pt)
Back Stoke to beat Burnley at 1.695/7 (1pt)
Staked: 27 pts
Returned: 28.2 pts
P/L: +1.2 pts