Premier League Stats Preview: City to continue on high-scoring winning road

Andrew Atherley
04 November 2015

Man City look set for another entertaining encounter at Villa Park on Sunday

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Andrew Atherley predicts defeat for Remi Garde in his first match with Aston Villa but says the numbers point to goals on both sides...

"In City's last 12 games in all competitions their only clean sheet was the goalless draw away to Manchester United two weeks ago. That is also the only match in which City failed to score, which means that both teams have scored in 11 of their last 12 games."

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Back Man City to win and both teams to score v Aston Villa at 21/10 with Betfair Sportsbook

We cannot know for sure how Aston Villa will perform in their first match under Remi Garde, at home to Manchester City on Sunday, but the recent numbers point firmly to a high-scoring match leading to an away win.

Given that set-up, a City win with both teams to score looks a good-value bet at 21/10 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Let's look at City first. In their five-win opening salvo at the start of the season, each victory was achieved to nil and by good margins (at least two goals in four out of five), but that sequence now appears out of step with the rest of their form.

Since the end of that five-win run, City have played 12 games in all competitions and their only clean sheet was the goalless draw away to Manchester United two weeks ago. That is also the only match in which City failed to score, which means that both teams have scored in 11 of their last 12 games.

Of course, it is more likely that City will be able to keep a clean sheet against a struggling side like Villa, but it is worth noting that having had early shut-outs against three current bottom-half sides (West Brom, Chelsea and Watford) they have subsequently conceded against Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the Premier League and against Sunderland in the Capital One Cup.

It is possible to argue that Vincent Kompany's absence through injury affected City's defensive shield, as he was there for the opening five clean sheets and then was quickly sidelined before returning to the starting line-up in the goalless draw at Old Trafford. But City have conceded in two subsequent games with Kompany in the side, which again raises the question of whether the early clean sheets were exceptions to the general rule.

On the Villa side, there is a clear pattern of high-scoring games against top-half teams. The Villans have played five matches in that category this season and both teams have scored in four of them - a trend that continued at Tottenham on Monday night when, with Garde watching from the stands, Villa upped their game in the second half, scored and were right in contention until a late Harry Kane goal made it 3-1.

Although Villa have lost all five games against top-half teams, only six sides have scored more goals in that category and they clearly carry a threat against good defences.

Those five losses indicate the size of Garde's task if he is to avoid starting his Villa reign with a defeat, and the strong likelihood of an away win is backed up by City's record of six wins out of six this season against bottom-half opponents.

Unless Garde effects a quick change in Villa's pattern of play (read here Alex Keble's views on the five things the new manager must do), a City win with both teams scoring looks a decent call.

Stay with Leicester on their roll

Leicester look a team to continue backing against nearly all opposition until there are serious signs that their fantastic run of form is petering out, especially as the odds are not contracting in line with their record as quickly as they would with a more fashionable team.

Watford will be tough opponents on Saturday but even their good defence (which ranks fifth for clean sheets with five) is likely to be stretched by Leicester, whose goalscoring and win record is outstanding, with red-hot Jamie Vardy leading the line in brilliant fashion.

No visiting team has stopped Leicester scoring at the King Power since mid-March and they have won eight of their 11 subsequent scoring home games in the Premier League (being stopped from winning only by big-six teams Chelsea and Arsenal - who both won - and Tottenham).

Leicester's problems at home for most of last season stemmed from a lack of goals and it was solving that issue that held the key to success - since last Christmas they have scored in 19 games against teams outside the big six for an overall record of W15 D4 L0 (nine wins out of nine at home).

Recommended Bets

Back Leicester to beat Watford at 1.910/11 (1pt)
Back Man City to win and both teams to score v Aston Villa at 21/10 with Betfair Sportsbook (1pt)