Premier League Stats Preview: Leicester can take their chances against porous Newcastle

Andrew Atherley
18 November 2015

Jamie Vardy (pictured) could be missing on Saturday but Riyad Mahrez has been a strong supporting threat too

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Andrew Atherley expects the high-flying Foxes to get a positive result at St James' Park on Saturday even if Jamie Vardy is not fit to lead their attack...

"The regularity with which Newcastle concede chances and goals means Leicester have a good chance even if Vardy is absent. Steve McClaren's side have had the fewest shots in nine of their 12 matches this season and they have the fifth-worst defence in terms of goals-against."

Back Leicester on Draw No Bet v Newcastle at 1.855/6

Leicester once again rate the best bet on the Premier League weekend programme - even if their talismanic striker Jamie Vardy is ruled out by the hip injury that prevented him playing any part in England's friendlies against Spain and England.

The Foxes have been the team to follow in recent weeks, especially as their odds have remained generous despite their excellent form, and they hold a strong chance away to Newcastle on Saturday.

Since their form turned around at the start of April, Leicester's Premier League record is W14 D5 L2 and it is strongest of all against bottom-half teams like Newcastle (W10 D3 L0). The figures indicate they will be hard to stop at St James' Park and that the slowdown will come only when they have a run of matches against top-half opponents.

Of course, we have to consider the possibility that Leicester owe most of their success to Vardy, who has scored in his last nine Premier League appearances, and that they will falter if he is not there to lead the attack.

Vardy has been an ever-present during that run of 21 league games since April, scoring 15 goals, and there is no escaping his importance in Leicester's rise. But it is a chicken-and-egg conundrum of which came first: Leicester's team performance or Vardy's red-hot goalscoring form?

Although Vardy's headline-making performances this season suggest he has been the catalyst, there is some evidence that his personal success has grown out of Leicester's overall improvement.

In the run of nine matches (W7 D1 L1) that saved them from relegation last season, Leicester scored 19 goals but just three came from Vardy even though he played every game.

This season has been different, with Vardy accounting for almost half of Leicester's league goals (12 out of 25), but the team are far from solely - or mainly - reliant on him. Vardy has scored Leicester's first goal in six of their 12 matches, but Riyad Mahrez has done so on three occasions and three other players have also scored the breakthrough goal.

While Leicester's win rate since April with Vardy on the scoresheet has been 69%, the success rate without him scoring is not far behind at 63%. But what the figures cannot tell us is the extent to which the threat of Vardy's pace helps to stretch the play and create space for his teammates, even when he doesn't score himself.

The regularity with which Newcastle concede chances and goals means Leicester have a good chance even if Vardy is absent. Steve McClaren's side have had the fewest shots in nine of their 12 matches this season and they have the fifth-worst defence in terms of goals-against.

Newcastle's only victories have come against teams below them in the table (Norwich and Bournemouth) and they need a big lift in form - or a dramatic drop in Leicester's standards - if they are to become only the second team (after Arsenal) to beat Claudio Ranieri's side this season.

If Vardy plays, Leicester will make more appeal as a win bet but, whatever the line-up, Ranieri's side rate well on the Draw No Bet at 1.855/6.

***

Swans set to rise again

Swansea v Bournemouth looks far from the most appealing match of the weekend, with both teams in the bottom three of the six-match form table, but the hosts are worth backing at 1.9110/11.

Garry Monk's side have lost their way after a bright start but most of their recent games have been against teams with well-established or developing form, and overall this season they have a solid W2 D2 L1 against teams with neither of those characteristics. Only one of those was at home and it resulted in a 2-0 win over Newcastle.

Swansea's big problem is lack of goals, but it is not as bad as Bournemouth's predicament without star striker Callum Wilson. The Cherries have taken only one point out of 18 since Wilson was condemned to the long-term injury list and have managed only four goals all season without him on the pitch.

Recommended Bets

Back Leicester on Draw No Bet v Newcastle at 1.855/6 (1pt)
Back Swansea to beat Bournemouth at 1.9110/11 (1pt)

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