What The Stats Say: Opta suggests that Arsenal will profit from Villa slump

Mike Arteta.
Will Mikel Arteta point Arsenal to victory against Aston Villa.

Dan Fitch has used Opta Stats to pick out ten Premier League bets for the weekend and he fancies Arsenal to punish a declining Aston Villa.

“Having won their first four Premier League games this season, Aston Villa have now lost their last two. They’ve conceded as many goals in these two defeats as they had in their previous nine league games combined (7).”

Back Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 1.748/11.

Burnley can avoid defeat

Brighton 1.9420/21 v Burnley 4.67/2; The Draw 3.711/4
Friday 6 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

"Brighton have won just one of their last 12 Premier League home games (D5 L6), and are winless in their last seven at the Amex Stadium since their 2-1 win against Arsenal back in June."

With Brighton in form that's not much better than Burnley's, they seem overrated here. Back Burnley in the Double Chance market at 2.01/1.

Saints go limping in

Southampton 1.991/1 v Newcastle 4.216/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Friday 6 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since joining Southampton in 2019, only Jamie Vardy (29) has scored more Premier League goals than Danny Ings (27)."

Ings has just had a knee operation and will be badly missed by the Saints. Under 2.5 goals is 2.01/1.

Points shared at Goodison Park

Everton 3.02/1 v Manchester United 2.56/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 7 November, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Everton are unbeaten in their last three league games against Man Utd (W1 D2), with both games last season ending 1-1."

With neither team in great form, Everton and Manchester United may be satisfied with a draw at 3.711/4.

Goals will flow

Crystal Palace 3.02/1 v Leeds 2.588/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday 7 November, 15:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

"Crystal Palace have scored with 14% of their efforts so far, their best shot conversion rate in a Premier League season on record (since 1997-98)."

Leeds love to attack and will leave space for Crystal Palace to potentially exploit. Both teams to score is 1.784/5.

Chelsea will nick it against blunt Blades

Chelsea 1.42/5 v Sheffield United 9.08/1; The Draw 5.69/2
Saturday 7 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Sheffield United have netted just four goals in 10 Premier League games, with two of those coming from the penalty spot."

Chelsea have now kept clean sheets in five consecutive games and they are 2.3811/8 to do so again, by winning to nil against Sheffield United.

Derby win for Hammers

West Ham 1.910/11 v Fulham 4.47/2; The Draw 4.03/1
Saturday 7 November, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

"West Ham have won 59% of their Premier League games against Fulham (13/22), their highest ratio against any opponent they've faced at least 10 times in the competition."

Current form also suggests West Ham will win and their price of 1.910/11 to do so looks generous.

Spurs can win again on the road

West Brom 7.06/1 v Tottenham 1.558/15; The Draw 4.67/2
Sunday 8 November, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

"Tottenham have won all three of their away Premier League games this season - only three times in their history have they won their opening four on the road in a league campaign, doing so in 1949-50 when winning the second tier, 1960-61 when winning the top-flight title and in 2017-18 (finished third)."

Spurs don't keep many clean sheets, so back an away win and both teams to score at 3.211/5.

Leicester won't keep Wolves from the draw

Leicester 2.47/5 v Wolves 3.55/2; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunday 8 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Wolves are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W3 D1), earning as many points (10) in this run as they had from their previous 27 available in the competition (W3 D1 L5)."

Leicester are also in good form and this looks like a match when backing the draw makes sense at 3.39/4.

City have strong home record against rivals

Manchester City 2.0421/20 v Liverpool 3.55/2; The Draw 4.216/5
Sunday 8 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester City have won their last three home league games against Liverpool by an aggregate score of 11-1."

Such a record is worth taking notice of and Manchester City are available at 2.0421/20 to win again.

Villa form has dipped

Arsenal 1.748/11 v Aston Villa 5.39/2; The Draw 4.1
Sunday 8 November, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Box Events

"Having won their first four Premier League games this season, Aston Villa have now lost their last two. They've conceded as many goals in these two defeats as they had in their previous nine league games combined (7)."

Arsenal beat Manchester United last weekend and should be confident of taking three points here. Back the Gunners to claim a win at 1.748/11.

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 201.00 pts
Returned: 211.02 pts
P/L: +10.02 pts

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