What The Stats Say: Opta say it'll be a low scoring game at Anfield

Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola.
Who will come out on top when Liverpool host Manchester City?

Liverpool aren't scoring at home and with Manchester City in fine defensive form, Dan Fitch is backing under 2.5 goals, as he previews the weekend Premier League games using Opta statistics.

“Liverpool haven’t scored in any of their last three Premier League home games, with their current goalless run at Anfield standing at 348 minutes. The Reds have never gone four consecutive home league games without scoring in their history.”

Manchester City have kept six consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League and it’s hard to fathom why under 2.5 goals is the outsider at 2.186/5.

Goals will flow

Aston Villa 2.8815/8 v Arsenal 2.6413/8; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 6 February, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Aston Villa have conceded on average 1.6 goals per Premier League home game this season (14 goals in 9 games), in contrast to their away form which has seen them ship just 0.9 goals per game (10 in 11)."

Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.748/11 and landed in Aston Villa and Arsenal's respective midweek games.

Defences on top

Burnley 3.814/5 v Brighton 2.285/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 6 February, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Three of the seven Premier League meetings between Burnley and Brighton have ended goalless, including the reverse fixture this season. Among fixtures played five or more times, none have a higher ratio of 0-0 draws than this one (43%, level with Leicester vs Wolves & Brighton vs Newcastle)."

With the history of goalless games in this fixture and the solid defensive form of both teams, under 1.5 goals looks big at 2.829/5.

Draw would suit strugglers

Newcastle 3.185/40 v Southampton 2.568/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 6 February, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Southampton haven't lost five consecutive league matches since September 1998 under Dave Jones, while this current four-game losing run is the longest in Ralph Hasenhüttl's league managerial career."

Neither side are in good form and a draw at 3.412/5 would represent a decent result for both teams.

Another win for West Ham

Fulham 3.814/5 v West Ham 2.166/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 6 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Ham have won three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since December 2018. The Hammers are looking to win four away matches in a row in the competition for the first time since September 2007 under Alan Curbishley."

With West Ham playing so well of late, their odds of 2.166/5 to win look generous.

Visitors can get on scoresheet

Manchester United 1.68/13 v Everton 6.411/2; The Draw 4.47/2
Saturday 6 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Everton are looking to win five consecutive away league games for the first time since April 1970 under Harry Catterick, a season which saw them win their seventh top-flight title."

Though United are formidable opponents these days, this stats suggest that Everton can be competitive and both teams to score is 1.784/5.

Another blow for Spurs

Tottenham 1.491/2 v West Brom 8.27/1; The Draw 4.77/2
Sunday 7 February, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"This is Spurs boss José Mourinho's first home Premier League meeting with West Brom since April 2018 with Man Utd, losing 1-0 against the Baggies, who were bottom of the table and would go on to be relegated."

Tottenham are playing dreadfully and it has to be worth taking a chance on West Brom avoiding defeat at 2.962/1.

Crafty Foxes can frustrate Wolves

Wolves 3.814/5 v Leicester 2.186/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 7 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leicester have won eight of their 11 Premier League away games so far this season (D2 L1), with the Foxes only winning more on the road in a season in the competition in their title campaign of 2015-16 (11)."

With this sort of win ratio it's always worth backing Leicester on the road and they are available at 2.186/5.

Liverpool can't score at Anfield

Liverpool 3.55/2 v Manchester City 2.226/5; The Draw 3.814/5
Sunday 7 February, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Liverpool haven't scored in any of their last three Premier League home games, with their current goalless run at Anfield standing at 348 minutes. The Reds have never gone four consecutive home league games without scoring in their history."

Manchester City have kept six consecutive clean sheets and it's hard to fathom why under 2.5 goals is the outsider at 2.186/5.

Chelsea are improving

Sheffield United 7.87/1 v Chelsea 1.491/2; The Draw 4.94/1
Sunday 7 February, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Chelsea have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom, with the exceptions being a 1-2 loss at Crystal Palace (October 2017) and a 3-3 draw with West Brom (September 2020)."

Chelsea have yet to concede a goal under Thomas Tuchel and are 2.47/5 to win to nil.

Raphina big price to continue streak

Leeds 1.8810/11 v Crystal Palace 4.47/2; The Draw 4.03/1
Monday 8 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leeds' Raphinha has been directly involved in four goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 2 assists), as many as he had in his first 13 in the competition (2 goals, 2 assists)."

Given Raphina's form, he looks generously priced at 3.814/5 to score.

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