What The Stats Say: Opta reveals Arsenal v Liverpool to be a record breaker

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta.
Will Mikel Arteta point Arsenal towards success against Liverpool?

No Premier League fixture has provided more goals than Arsenal v Liverpool and Dan Fitch is backing that trend to continue, as he uses Opta stats to preview the weekend fixture...

“No fixture in Premier League history has seen more goals scored than Arsenal vs Liverpool (166). 94 of these goals have been scored by Liverpool, the most goals the Gunners have shipped against a single opponent in the competition.”

With those statistics in mind, over 2.5 goals looks like value at 1.784/5.

Another clean sheet for Chelsea

Chelsea 1.241/4 v West Brom 16.5; The Draw 7.26/1
Saturday 3 April, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Chelsea are yet to concede a single goal in their five Premier League home games under Thomas Tuchel. In English top-flight history, the only team to keep a clean sheet in their first six home games under a specific manager are Manchester City under Ron Saunders in 1973-74."

Chelsea have gone from being leaky under Frank Lampard, to having the tightest defence in the Premier League under Tuchel. Back Chelsea to win to nil at 1.834/5.

Blades are blunt

Leeds 1.574/7 v Sheffield United 6.86/1; The Draw 4.57/2
Saturday 3 April, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"Sheffield United have scored a league-low 16 Premier League goals this season, but have an expected goals (xG) total of 26.8, meaning they've scored almost 11 goals fewer than expected based on the quality of their chances. Indeed, the Blades have the lowest shot conversion rate in the league this term, netting just 6.56% of their attempts (16/244)."

Leeds do not have the best defensive record, but this could be another match where the home side wins to nil, this time priced at 2.68/5.

Goals will flow again

Leicester 6.86/1 v Manchester City 1.594/7; The Draw 4.47/2
Saturday 3 April, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leicester City won the reverse of this fixture 5-2 in September - no team has ever scored six league goals in a single season against a side managed by Pep Guardiola before."

Leicester are the third highest top scorers in the Premier League this season and both teams to score can be backed at at 1.9420/21.

Record breaking fixture can deliver

Arsenal 3.39/4 v Liverpool 2.3211/8; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 3 April, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"No fixture in Premier League history has seen more goals scored than Arsenal vs Liverpool (166). 94 of these goals have been scored by Liverpool, the most goals the Gunners have shipped against a single opponent in the competition."

With those statistics in mind, over 2.5 goals looks like value at 1.784/5.

Points shared on coast

Southampton 2.26/5 v Burnley 3.9; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunday 4 April, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Burnley have won just four of their 28 away league games against Southampton (D11 L13)."

The Clarets have drawn four of their last six matches and you can back these teams to share the points at 3.412/5.

Kane can get closer to best ever season

Newcastle 6.05/1 v Tottenham 1.664/6; The Draw 4.216/5
Sunday 4 April, 14:05
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Tottenham's Harry Kane has been involved in 43 goals in 40 games in all competitions this season (27 goals, 16 assists), just two short of his best ever season in his senior career (41 goals and 4 assists in 2017-18).

Kane scored twice in two games for England while on international duty and is 1.9720/21 to add to his goal tally for Spurs.

Low scoring match likely

Aston Villa 2.3611/8 v Fulham 3.55/2; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunday 4 April, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Fulham have the biggest difference between expected goals (34.1) and goals scored (23) in the Premier League this season, netting 11 fewer goals than expected based on the quality of their chances."

With Villa and Fulham both capable of defending well, under 2.5 goals should land here at 1.748/11.

Relatively generous price for home win

Manchester United 1.674/6 v Brighton 5.85/1; The Draw 4.3100/30
Sunday 4 April, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Manchester United have won each of their last five meetings with Brighton in all competitions, netting exactly three goals in each of the last four."

Brighton were in good form before the international break, which has served to boost Manchester United's price. Given their record in this fixture, the 1.674/6 for Manchester United looks big.

Everton struggling at home

Everton 1.865/6 v Crystal Palace 5.14/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Monday 5 April, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Everton have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League home games (W3 D1), having lost just one of their 15 previously (W7 D7). Their seven-home league defeats this season is their most in a single Premier League campaign since 2015-16 (8)."

Though not in great form themselves, it could be worth looking at Crystal Palace to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 2.1411/10.

Cautiously back Hammers

Wolves 3.185/40 v West Ham 2.6213/8, The Draw 3.259/4
Monday 5 April, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Ham are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since the 1922-23 second division campaign, with this the 28th different season in which they've met since then."

The Hammers are still fighting to qualify for the Champions League and can be backed Draw No Bet at 1.834/5.

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