What The Stats Say: Opta shows difference in form ahead of North London Derby

Tottenham manager Jose Mourinho.
Will Jose Mourinho inspire Spurs when they host local rivals Arsenal?

Dan Fitch uses Opta Stats to find bets for this weekend's Premier League and thinks that Spurs are great value to beat Arsenal in the North London derby.

“Tottenham are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League (9 – W6 D3), while only Sheffield United (13) are on a longer run without a win than Arsenal (3 – D1 L2).”

Given the difference between league position between the clubs, the price of 2.0421/20 for a Spurs win seems much too big.

Everton will concede again

Burnley 4.3100/30 v Everton 2.021/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 5 December, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Having kept a clean sheet in their opening weekend victory at Spurs, Everton have now conceded in each of their last nine Premier League matches, with only Sheffield United (13) on a longer current run without a shutout in the competition."

Burnley are struggling to score, but if they're going to find the net against anyone right now, it's Everton. Both teams to score is 1.9420/21.

Another win for Manchester City

Manchester City 1.132/15 v Fulham 26.025/1; The Draw 11.521/2
Saturday 5 December, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Manchester City's 5-0 victory over Burnley last time out was the 45th time the Citizens have scored 5+ goals in a single Premier League match, with only Manchester United (46) doing so more often in the competition's history. 21 of these 45 have been under Pep Guardiola's management."

A Manchester City win and over 3.5 goals against Fulham looks likely to land at 1.834/5.

Fernandes is away specialist

West Ham 3.711/4 v Manchester United 2.166/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 5 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Eleven of Bruno Fernandes' 15 Premier League goals for Man Utd have come away from home (73.3%) - of all players in the competition's history to have scored at least 15 goals, only Johan Elmander (73.7% - 14/19) has scored a higher share on the road."

For such a regular scorer, Fernandes continues to be available at big prices to find the net and is 2.77/4 to add to his tally against West Ham on Saturday.

Low scoring win for Chelsea

Chelsea 1.574/7 v Leeds 6.611/2; The Draw 4.67/2
Saturday 5 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Only Tottenham (9) are on a longer current unbeaten run in the Premier League than Chelsea (8), while no side has kept more clean sheets than the Blues in the division this term (5)."

Chelsea's defending has improved and with Leeds keeping consecutive clean sheets, a home win and under 3.5 goals looks generous at 2.77/4.

Goals hard to come by for Baggies

West Brom 3.02/1 v Crystal Palace 2.6813/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunday 6 December, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Bromwich Albion have the lowest expected goals total so far in the Premier League this season (5.9); indeed, 43% of their goals have come from outside the box, the highest ratio in the competition in 2020-21 (3/7)."

Crystal Palace have also been struggling to score and under 2.5 goals is 1.738/11.

Blunt Blades will lost again

Sheffield United 4.03/1 v Leicester 2.0811/10; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 6 December, 14:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Sheffield United are winless in their last 13 Premier League games, losing 12 of those. They last had a longer run without a league win between December 2010-March 2011 (14 games)."

Leicester have not been at their best of late, but their odds of 2.0811/10 have to be taken against struggling Sheffield United.

Spurs are great value

Tottenham 2.0421/20 v Arsenal 4.03/1; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 6 December, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League (9 - W6 D3), while only Sheffield United (13) are on a longer run without a win than Arsenal (3 - D1 L2)."

Given the difference between league position between the clubs, the price of 2.0421/20 for a Spurs win seems much too big.

Jota becoming key for Liverpool

Liverpool 1.548/15 v Wolves 7.413/2; The Draw 4.57/2
Sunday 6 December, 19:15
Live on Amazon Prime

"Diogo Jota has scored in each of his first four Premier League home games for Liverpool - only three players have ever scored in each of their first five at home for a specific club in the Premier League; Alan Shearer at Newcastle (first 15), Les Ferdinand at Newcastle (6) and Jermain Defoe at Portsmouth (5)."

Jota is becoming as deadly a forward for Liverpool as Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. Back him at 2.56/4 to score against his former club.

Goals reliable on south coast

Brighton 2.588/5 v Southampton 2.982/1; The Draw 3.55/2
Monday 7 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Southampton have only failed to score in one of their last 17 Premier League games, with that coming on the opening weekend this season (0-1 vs Crystal Palace). Saints have scored in their last nine in the competition, with only Liverpool (16) on a longer current run."

With Brighton generally scoring, both teams to score looks a safe bet at 1.84/5.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 287.00 pts
Returned: 313.47 pts
P/L: +26.47 pts

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